With a massive double gameweek coming up in FPL GW25, tipster FPL Bakchod shares his insights, data, and strategy on how to make the most of it.
Who do we keep on the bench? How do we optimize it without compromising GW25 performance? Also who do we get in for the players that we are moving out? Read on for these answers and more.
I will be evaluating basis the following factors:
– Current ownership/performance of MUN, NEW, BRE, and BHA players
– Who to bench/Transfer Out
– Who to transfer in?
– GW24-25 fixtures/teams to target
– GW26-28 fixtures to target
– Doubles in GW25 – Key picks
– GW25 Captain Options
Current ownership of MUN, NEW, BRE, and BHA players in FPL (10%+):
- Trippier – 69%
- Rashford – 54%
- Almiron – 30%
- Toney – 29%
- Shaw – 27%
- Pope – 25%
- Schar – 17%
- Mitoma – 13%
- Fernandes – 12%
- Mee – 12%
- Sanchez – 11%
- Gross – 10%
- Raya – 10%
- De Gea – 10%
Performance of top owned players from these teams (Player – Points post GW17 – GWs with 5+ Points post GW17):
- Trippier – 49 – 5/7
- Rashford – 74 – 7/7
- Almiron – 31 – 2/7
- Toney – 37 – 4/7
- Shaw – 54 – 5/7
- Pope – 38 – 5/7
- Schar – 34 – 5/7
- Mitoma – 46 – 5/7
- Fernandes – 54 – 5/7
- Mee – 37 – 4/7
- Sanchez – 31 – 3/7
- Gross – 26 – 2/7
- Raya – 43 – 5/7
- De Gea – 40 – 5/7
Team-Wise Top Picks
Rashford is definitely the top pick and has to be retained – 74 points in FPL since the restart (highest), Mahrez next at 60. Shaw and Fernandes are both at 54 points (tied 5th for points since restart).
FPL Points at a team level since GW17 (before the Arsenal-City fixture*)
- Manchester United – 491
- Fulham – 394
- Brentford – 390
- Newcastle – 362
- Brighton – 361
- City – 359*
- Chelsea – 348
- Spurs – 337
- Arsenal – 318*
Manchester United are almost 100 points greater than the next team. They have had easy fixtures (and an extra fixture) but they have also faced Arsenal and City in this period. United double-up is the minimum after GW25.
After Rashford, personally, I am inclined toward Shaw over Fernandes. Shaw is the highest-scoring defender since GW17 at 54 points. In fact, only two other defenders have got >40 points in this period – Trippier (49) and Ream (47). Meanwhile, there are equally good and even cheaper options in the midfield (Fernandes is at 9.9m). Midfielders with >40 points after GW17 – eight players, of which three have got more points than Fernandes. As for De Gea, he is the 3rd highest-scoring keeper since the restart and can be retained as well.
Just like Rashford, Trippier definitely should be retained. As we mentioned in our last thread, he is a season-keeper alongside Haaland and Kane. He is third highest with regards to points across all GWs, in fact, the only defender in the top 15 players by points.
If we look at the Newcastle forwards or midfielders, not a single player from Newcastle is in the top 20 forwards and midfielders by points since the restart. I would recommend moving those out over the next few GWs and not utilizing a spot on the bench for them.
Pope, like De Gea, can be retained. He can easily be your keeper till the end (I am planning to move to him whenever I wildcard as well). With regards to defenders, Schar/Botman/Burn can all be retained. However, they come after Rashford, Trippier and have to compete with Shaw/Fernandes and Brighton/Brentford assets.
Of the top 20 players by points since the restart, there are two from Brighton and three from Brentford:
- March – 59
- Mitoma – 46
- Raya – 43
- Toney, Mee – 37
The upside for Brighton/Brentford assets over United/Newcastle ones are the confirmed doubles for each of these teams in GW27 (and both against FDR 2-rated teams). In case you have Mitoma or March, you should definitely hold on to them as you might anyway get them back for GW27 and may even want to double up with Estupinian being another contender. While I do have Mitoma, between the two I would recommend March now. Since the restart, March is higher than Mitoma for shots, goals, assists, chances created, xA, and similar for xG, and SoT. Estupinian can also be retained, though low on priority.
With regards to Brentford assets, I think Toney definitely can be retained. Just like Mitoma/March, if you have him then you should definitely keep him in the 3-4 non-playing assets in GW25. He is the 5th highest-scoring forward by points since the restart, only one point behind Nketiah (38). Mee can be retained, with similar priority as Newcastle defenders but lower than Shaw. With regards to keepers, Sanchez and Raya definitely should be retained and your other keeper should play in GW25.
To summarise, retain priority (for outfield players):
- Rashford, Trippier
- Toney, Mitoma, March
- Newcastle defenders, Mee, Estupinian
FPL GW24-GW25 Fixtures/Teams to Target
Now that we have looked at which players can be retained and transferred out, let’s look at which teams we target to bring in players.
If you haven’t tripled up on Arsenal in FPL as yet (or have slightly weaker links now like White or Martinelli), you should definitely focus on getting the right triple-up.
Arsenal fixtures: AVL (A), LEI (A), EVE (H) in GW24 and 25.
For xG against since GW17 – AVL are 2nd worst, LEI are 3rd and EVE are 9th.
City have NFO (A) and BOU (A). While BOU are 5th worst, however, NFO are 5th best.
NFO have an XG against of only 8.5 since the restart. Only Newcastle (5.9), City (5.9), Brentford (7.3) and Chelsea (8.3) have been better.
Everton have LEE (H), AVL (H), ARS (A). Leeds and AVL are in the bottom 5 with regards to xG against.
Meanwhile, Liverpool play NEW (A), CRY (A), and WOL (H). Palace worst with regards to xG against, Wolves are 6th worst. As mentioned earlier, Newcastle are the best with regards to xG against since the restart.
Also, Newcastle are still unbeaten at home – 6W 5D 0L (the only team in the PL unbeaten at home). Newcastle will be a difficult fixture but the double in 25 definitely looks exciting.
Despite their performances, Liverpool still are 4th highest for xG since the restart (13.4), however, they are 12th for actual goals scored (6).
FPL GW26-GW28 Fixtures/Teams to Target
- ARS: BOU (H), FUL (A), CRY (H). Also LEE (H) in GW29
- BRE: FUL (H), EVE (A), SOU (A), LEI (H)
- BHA: WHU (H), LEE (A), CRY (H), MUN (H)
- LIV: MUN (H), BOU (A), FUL (H)
- MCI: NEW (H), CRY (A), WHU (H)
- TOT: WOL (A), NFO (H), SOU (A), EVE (A)
United does have tricky fixtures from GW26: LIV (A), SOU (H), BHA (A), NEW (A)
Doubles in GW25 – ARS, EVE, LIV, WOL – Key picks:
Odegaard and Saka preferred over Martinelli. xGI for Odegaard and Saka from GW17-23 is 4.2 each, for Martinelli, it is at 3.2. Also with regards to minutes, Odegaard and Saka have played 610+/630 minutes, and Martinelli meanwhile has played 545 mins (data prior to the City-Arsenal fixture in GW23).
The third Arsenal pick is either Gabriel or Nketiah. I am inclined toward Gabriel over Nketiah. While no clear return date for Jesus as yet, He should be back in the first half of March as per the latest reports. That will then mean reduced minutes for Nketiah. Meanwhile, Gabriel is the best pick among Arsenal’s defenders. As a White owner myself, I am planning to upgrade to Gabriel. White has had fewer minutes and he didn’t even start the City game last night. Gabriel is the 6th highest defender by points. He is highest across defenders for xG. Also, Trippier-Shaw-Gabriel is a back three that I can see myself settling down to for the medium term.
From GW17-22, there is not a single Everton player in the top 70 players by points. Gray is highest at 25 points, Tarkowksi next at 21. Tarkowski is 4th highest across defenders for shots though in this period (6 shots) and is priced at only 4.2m. He looks like the only player that you can consider getting in. Although he will be permanently on your bench after the double as Everton don’t have great fixtures from GW27: BRE (H), CHE (A), TOT (H), MUN (A). nHowever, at 4.2m, he is not a bad bench pick. He has played all minutes since the restart (compared to other bench picks like Bueno or Nico). That is the only reason I am considering him.
Salah looks like the best pick, although Darwin has more xGI since the restart. xGI for Salah at 4.5 (630 mins) and for Darwin at 5.6 (453 mins).
Salah and Allison are the only two players who have played all minutes since the restart. Personally, I have KDB and Kane. I will be making the KDB to Salah move but definitely not the Kane to Darwin move.
Two reasons – Firstly as a former Darwin owner, I have a feeling that points from one fixture from Kane should be similar or not much lower than two fixtures of Darwin.n Secondly, Kane has a good run of fixtures from GW26 and while many other owners have transferred him out, I am keen on holding him and getting the gains.
After Salah, I might actually consider TAA or Robbo as the next-best Liverpool assets. Darwin is a good pick, no doubt. There is no ceiling and he could get a huge number of points in a DGW. Other than Salah and Allison, the next two players based on minutes for Liverpool are Robbo (551 mins) and TAA (541 mins). However, they are tough to bring in given their pricing (premium defenders).
xGI/90 – Key Liverpool Players:
- GW1-8: Salah (0.8), Firmino (0.7), Robbo & TAA (0.3 each)
- GW9-16: Darwin (1), Salah (0.6), Robbo (0.4), TAA (0.3)
- GW17-23: Darwin (1.1), Salah (0.6), Gakpo (0.6), TAA (0.4), Robbo (0.3)
Similar to Everton, there are no Wolves players in the FPL top 50 players by points since the restart. Sa is highest at 29 (52nd rank), followed by Kilman (26) and Podence (25). Just like Tarkowski, Kilman has played all minutes and is priced at only 4.3m. However, I already have Bueno and so I am inclined towards Tarkowski over Kilman just to hedge the risk (avoid double Wolves).
GW25 Captain Options:
- Saka/Odegaard vs LEI (A) and EVE (H)
- Salah vs CRY (A) and WOL (H)
- Haaland vs BOU (A)
Personally, I will definitely be going with either Salah or Saka but I haven’t decided yet. Hopefully, GW24 helps me decide that.
Haven’t done the math but am inclined towards Salah as I will have only one Liverpool player and three Arsenal assets so captaining Salah will be like a cover for other Liverpool assets, while I already will have cover for Saka with the Arsenal triple up.
Salah vs Saka since the restart (s