With plenty of potential double gameweeks in FPL, there will be a lot of questions on your mind. FPL Bakchod is here to answer all of them in his latest article.
City and United Top Picks? Liverpool attackers – hold or sell? Should we consider any Spurs players? Read on for these answers and more.
We will be looking at one team at a time before sharing our final recommendations. Metrics we are looking at:
- Home/Away performance.
- Fixtures and doubles.
- GW17-GW19 performance.
- GW17-GW19 mins.
- Comparison with other players for shots, CC, xA, xG.
GW20 and GW23 double.
- Fixtures (double in GW20 and GW23): MUN (A), TOT (H), WOL (H), TOT (A), AVL (H), ARS (A).
- Arsenal and United will be difficult games, Arsenal are still unbeaten at home (7W 1D), meanwhile United have just one defeat at home (6W 1D 1L).
- City have a good home record as well, 7W 1D 1L – 3/6 are home fixtures and two of these are against bottom-half teams (Wolves in fact is 19th).
- City highest for shots (54), SiB (39), and xG (8.2) since the restart.
Performance of City assets from GW17-GW19:
- From GW17-GW19, only six City players have played 265+ out of the possible 270 mins – Ederson, Ake, Stones, KDB, Rodri, and Haaland.
- In this period, KDB is highest across City players for xA (1.9) and chances created (12); he is second only to Haaland for shots (11, Haaland has 13) and xGI (2.7, Haaland at 3.5).
- Mahrez and Grealish are next for xGI, 2.5 each; Mahrez is second for City for chances created (11).
- Cancelo and Foden have only played 67 and 79 minutes respectively.
- Stones and Ake look like the only City defenders that can be considered, however, they are low for xGI from GW17-19 (0.1 each); there are 45 defenders in this period with an xGI > 0.1.
- At the same time with the fixtures coming up, clean sheets could be difficult.
Should one triple up on City? If already tripled up, should one continue?
- Without Cancelo, should one triple up on City? The ideal triple-up would be three attacking assets – Haaland, KDB, and Grealish/Mahrez/Foden; however similar to the difficulty in clean sheets, these fixtures could be low scoring as well.
- While they did beat United 6-3 in the first half, this is a different United now and the match is also at Old Trafford.
- Also, this will mean 3/7 forward players in your team will be City players.
- At the same time, there will always be the fear of rotation for the third asset.
- However, of the three, Mahrez is definitely the best pick at the moment; he was excellent in the FA Cup win vs Chelsea.
- Personally, I was thinking of moving from Cancelo to Ake earlier; however, now I am reconsidering it. I don’t think I will be continuing with the City triple-up.
- I am considering another Newcastle defender (they don’t have doubles, but good fixtures till GW23) or Dalot or a punt like Doherty.
GW20 and potential GW21 double.
- Fixtures till GW23: MCI (H), CRY (A), ARS (A), LEE (H). Potential Double in GW21 – CRY (H), LEE (A).
- They could effectively play Palace and Leeds twice in the next six games; Palace is 12th while Leeds is 14th in the table.
- Since the restart, Palace and Leeds are 17th and 18th for xG for; they are 5th and 1st respectively for xG against.
- United have won their seven last games across all competitions, they have scored 18 goals and conceded only four across these fixtures.
Performance of United forwards:
- Only four players have played all 270 mins since the restart – De Gea, Shaw, Fernandes, and Casemiro.
- From GW 17-19, Rashford is highest for United for shots (8), SoT (5), and goals (3); Fernandes is highest for chances created (11), xA (1.7), and xGI (2.3).
- Rashford has played only 220 mins vs 270 for Fernandes, also he is 2.8m cheaper than Fernandes.
- Martial and Casemiro are joint 3rd for xGI after Fernandes and Rashford (1.6) at 1.5 each.
- GW17 onwards, Martial and Casemiro have the same number of shots (6), SoT (2), goals (1), and xGI.
- From GW17-GW19, Shaw is the highest-scoring defender across the premier league in FPL – 32 points (15 in GW19 vs BOU).
- United have had three cleansheets in each of the last three games.
- Dalot vs Shaw stats/90 from GW1-GW19: Shots – Dalot 0.9, Shaw 0.4; chances created – Dalot 1.6, Shaw 1.3; equal for xA (0.1), xGI (0.2).
- I don’t mind a United double-up on defence given the form and fixtures; there could be three clean sheets in the next six, also Dalot and Shaw could give attacking returns as well.
United Triple up?
- United triple-up can strongly be considered if you don’t already have three United assets; they could get another double game week and overall fixtures are not as tricky as the other top teams.
- Personally, I am inclined towards two attackers and one defender; Shaw and Rashford are essential picks.
- For the third attacker, Fernandes > Martial > Casemiro; however getting Fernandes in won’t be as easy as Martial (easy move from Mitrovic).
Potential GW21 double.
- Fixtures till GW23: BHA (A), CHE (H), CHE (A). Potential double in GW21 – WOL (A), EVE (H), NEW (A), CRY (A), WOL (H). Potential double in GW23.
- Two potential doubles for Liverpool, currently a 50% chance for a double in GW21 and a 10% chance of a double in GW23.
- If both doubles go ahead, that will be five away fixtures and three home fixtures for Liverpool till GW23.
- Liverpool don’t have a good away record (2W 2D 4L), they have been better at Anfield (6W 2D 1L).
Salah and Núñez – hold/sell?
- Núñez and Salah are 1st (tied with Haaland) and 2nd respectively across all players for xGI since the restart; Núñez at 3.5 and Salah at 3.2.
- In this period, Núñez is highest across all players for shots (16), SoT (6), and SiB (7); however he has returned only eight points in these three games.
- With the law of averages, it is high time that Núñez owners should get rewarded for their patience.
- In case you own both Salah and Núñez, I would keep Núñez and move Salah out. With doubles for City and Spurs, moves to KDB or Kane (or even Son as a punt) can be considered.
- Liverpool have the second-highest shots (53) and xG (6.9) though since the restart, they could start scoring and it will be safer to keep at least one of the two.
- I own Núñez in FPL, I will be keeping him for now; there are other priority transfers at the moment and there is still a chance of a double in GW21.
- I am not looking at any other Liverpool players at the moment, TAA is looking better but I still don’t think he is worth the price.
- Fixtures till GW23: ARS (H), MCI (A), FUL (A), MCI (H), LEI (A).
- Only one confirmed double for Spurs, GW20 – however, they play the best two teams in the league; also they play City again in GW22.
Second Premium – Kane vs Son vs KDB vs Salah?
- xGI/90 from GW1-19: Salah (0.8), KDB (0.7), Kane (0.6) and Son (0.5).
- xGI from GW17-19: Salah (3.2), KDB (2.7), Kane (1.7), Son (1).
- In the 18 games till now, Kane has >5 points in 13 fixtures in FPL; double-digit points in four fixtures.
- The only Spurs player I am considering is Kane; he has been very consistent, he is owned by 30% of teams and I would like to hedge the risk of not having him.
- Kane is on four yellow cards though and just like Mitrovic in GW19, it could happen that he plays the first fixture, receives a yellow, and is unavailable for the second fixture against City.
- Mitrovic captainers (us included) got lucky this week because Haaland didn’t return; however, I am not looking at Kane as a captaincy option for GW20.
Which other Spurs Players?
- Since the restart, Doherty is highest across defenders for touches in the penalty area (12), second highest for shots (7), and fourth highest for xGI (0.9).
- Currently owned by only 0.7% of teams, priced at 4.6m.
- Perisic meanwhile has 10 touches in the penalty area (second highest across defenders), one shot, and an xGI of 0.7.
- Son numbers haven’t been good, KDB is preferred over Son.
Potential GW21 double and confirmed GW23 double.
- Fixtures till GW23: TOT (A), MUN (H), EVE (H). Potential double in GW21 – EVE (A), BRE (H), MCI (H).
- 4/6 home fixtures, Arsenal are still unbeaten at home this season. Of the two away fixtures, one is against Everton (18th in the league).
Arsenal Trio for DGWs?
- xGI/90 from GW1-19: Jesus (0.8), Odegaard (0.6), Saka (0.6), Martinelli (0.5), Nketiah (0.5).
- I have Martinelli and White, currently inclined towards upgrading Almiron to Odegaard for the DGWs.
- The optimum Arsenal trio at the moment will consist of two midfielders and one defender.
Other teams – Brighton, Leeds, Palace
Players that can be considered in FPL (and TSB):
- Brighton and Hove Albion – Mitoma (0.8%), Gross (11.5%), March (0.9%), Mac Allister (2.9%).
- Leeds – Rodrigo (6.9%).
- Crystal Palace – Zaha (11.8%).
- United triple-up in FPL looks like a clear decision, Shaw and Rashford are essential picks; Fernandes > Martial > Casemiro in case of attackers, and Dalot the clear pick in defence.
- City triple-up is not recommended, however in case one does want to triple up on City then three attackers can be selected – Haaland, KDB, and Mahrez/Grealish/Foden; Mahrez is definitely the best pick of the three at the moment.
- In the case of both Salah and Núñez, Salah can be sold and Núñez can be kept given the chance of a double in GW21.
- Kane and Doherty look like the only Spurs players that can be considered in FPL at the moment, Spurs don’t have a good run of fixtures though.
You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 22/23 season here.
Two football fans from Bangalore, playing and writing about Fantasy Football in our spare time.