FPL Tips: Planning for DGW20 and Potential DGW21

With plenty of potential double gameweeks in FPL, there will be a lot of questions on your mind. FPL Bakchod is here to answer all of them in his latest article.

City and United Top Picks? Liverpool attackers – hold or sell? Should we consider any Spurs players? Read on for these answers and more.

We will be looking at one team at a time before sharing our final recommendations. Metrics we are looking at:

Team stats:

Home/Away performance.
xG/xGC.
Fixtures and doubles.
GW17-GW19 performance.

Players:

GW17-GW19 mins.
xGI.
Comparison with other players for shots, CC, xA, xG.

Manchester City

GW20 and GW23 double.

Fixtures (double in GW20 and GW23): MUN (A), TOT (H), WOL (H), TOT (A), AVL (H), ARS (A).
Arsenal and United will be difficult games, Arsenal are still unbeaten at home (7W 1D), meanwhile United have just one defeat at home (6W 1D 1L).
City have a good home record as well, 7W 1D 1L – 3/6 are home fixtures and two of these are against bottom-half teams (Wolves in fact is 19th).
City highest for shots (54), SiB (39), and xG (8.2) since the restart.

Performance of City assets from GW17-GW19:

From GW17-GW19, only six City players have played 265+ out of the possible 270 mins – Ederson, Ake, Stones, KDB, Rodri, and Haaland.
In this period, KDB is highest across City players for xA (1.9) and chances created (12); he is second only to Haaland for shots (11, Haaland has 13) and xGI (2.7, Haaland at 3.5).
Mahrez and Grealish are next for xGI, 2.5 each; Mahrez is second for City for chances created (11).
Cancelo and Foden have only played 67 and 79 minutes respectively.
Stones and Ake look like the only City defenders that can be considered, however, they are low for xGI from GW17-19 (0.1 each); there are 45 defenders in this period with an xGI > 0.1.
At the same time with the fixtures coming up, clean sheets could be difficult.

Should one triple up on City? If already tripled up, should one continue?

Without Cancelo, should one triple up on City? The ideal triple-up would be three attacking assets – Haaland, KDB, and Grealish/Mahrez/Foden; however similar to the difficulty in clean sheets, these fixtures could be low scoring as well.
While they did beat United 6-3 in the first half, this is a different United now and the match is also at Old Trafford.
Also, this will mean 3/7 forward players in your team will be City players.
At the same time, there will always be the fear of rotation for the third asset.
However, of the three, Mahrez is definitely the best pick at the moment; he was excellent in the FA Cup win vs Chelsea.
Personally, I was thinking of moving from Cancelo to Ake earlier; however, now I am reconsidering it. I don’t think I will be continuing with the City triple-up.
I am considering another Newcastle defender (they don’t have doubles, but good fixtures till GW23) or Dalot or a punt like Doherty.

Manchester United

GW20 and potential GW21 double.

Fixtures till GW23: MCI (H), CRY (A), ARS (A), LEE (H). Potential Double in GW21 – CRY (H), LEE (A).
They could effectively play Palace and Leeds twice in the next six games; Palace is 12th while Leeds is 14th in the table.
Since the restart, Palace and Leeds are 17th and 18th for xG for; they are 5th and 1st respectively for xG against.
United have won their seven last games across all competitions, they have scored 18 goals and conceded only four across these fixtures.

Performance of United forwards:

Only four players have played all 270 mins since the restart – De Gea, Shaw, Fernandes, and Casemiro.
From GW 17-19, Rashford is highest for United for shots (8), SoT (5), and goals (3); Fernandes is highest for chances created (11), xA (1.7), and xGI (2.3).
Rashford has played only 220 mins vs 270 for Fernandes, also he is 2.8m cheaper than Fernandes.
Martial and Casemiro are joint 3rd for xGI after Fernandes and Rashford (1.6) at 1.5 each.
GW17 onwards, Martial and Casemiro have the same number of shots (6), SoT (2), goals (1), and xGI.

United Defenders?

From GW17-GW19, Shaw is the highest-scoring defender across the premier league in FPL – 32 points (15 in GW19 vs BOU).
United have had three cleansheets in each of the last three games.
Dalot vs Shaw stats/90 from GW1-GW19: Shots – Dalot 0.9, Shaw 0.4; chances created – Dalot 1.6, Shaw 1.3; equal for xA (0.1), xGI (0.2).
I don’t mind a United double-up on defence given the form and fixtures; there could be three clean sheets in the next six, also Dalot and Shaw could give attacking returns as well.

United Triple up?

United triple-up can strongly be considered if you don’t already have three United assets; they could get another double game week and overall fixtures are not as tricky as the other top teams.
Personally, I am inclined towards two attackers and one defender; Shaw and Rashford are essential picks.
For the third attacker, Fernandes > Martial > Casemiro; however getting Fernandes in won’t be as easy as Martial (easy move from Mitrovic).

Liverpool

Potential GW21 double.

Fixtures till GW23: BHA (A), CHE (H), CHE (A). Potential double in GW21 – WOL (A), EVE (H), NEW (A), CRY (A), WOL (H). Potential double in GW23.
Two potential doubles for Liverpool, currently a 50% chance for a double in GW21 and a 10% chance of a double in GW23.
If both doubles go ahead, that will be five away fixtures and three home fixtures for Liverpool till GW23.
Liverpool don’t have a good away record (2W 2D 4L), they have been better at Anfield (6W 2D 1L).

Salah and Núñez – hold/sell?

Núñez and Salah are 1st (tied with Haaland) and 2nd respectively across all players for xGI since the restart; Núñez at 3.5 and Salah at 3.2.
In this period, Núñez is highest across all players for shots (16), SoT (6), and SiB (7); however he has returned only eight points in these three games.
With the law of averages, it is high time that Núñez owners should get rewarded for their patience.
In case you own both Salah and Núñez, I would keep Núñez and move Salah out. With doubles for City and Spurs, moves to KDB or Kane (or even Son as a punt) can be considered.
Liverpool have the second-highest shots (53) and xG (6.9) though since the restart, they could start scoring and it will be safer to keep at least one of the two.
I own Núñez in FPL, I will be keeping him for now; there are other priority transfers at the moment and there is still a chance of a double in GW21.
I am not looking at any other Liverpool players at the moment, TAA is looking better but I still don’t think he is worth the price.

Spurs

GW20 double.

Fixtures till GW23: ARS (H), MCI (A), FUL (A), MCI (H), LEI (A).
Only one confirmed double for Spurs, GW20 – however, they play the best two teams in the league; also they play City again in GW22.

Second Premium – Kane vs Son vs KDB vs Salah?

xGI/90 from GW1-19: Salah (0.8), KDB (0.7), Kane (0.6) and Son (0.5).
xGI from GW17-19: Salah (3.2), KDB (2.7), Kane (1.7), Son (1).
In the 18 games till now, Kane has >5 points in 13 fixtures in FPL; double-digit points in four fixtures.
The only Spurs player I am considering is Kane; he has been very consistent, he is owned by 30% of teams and I would like to hedge the risk of not having him.
Kane is on four yellow cards though and just like Mitrovic in GW19, it could happen that he plays the first fixture, receives a yellow, and is unavailable for the second fixture against City.
Mitrovic captainers (us included) got lucky this week because Haaland didn’t return; however, I am not looking at Kane as a captaincy option for GW20.

Which other Spurs Players?

Since the restart, Doherty is highest across defenders for touches in the penalty area (12), second highest for shots (7), and fourth highest for xGI (0.9).
Currently owned by only 0.7% of teams, priced at 4.6m.
Perisic meanwhile has 10 touches in the penalty area (second highest across defenders), one shot, and an xGI of 0.7.
Son numbers haven’t been good, KDB is preferred over Son.

Arsenal

Potential GW21 double and confirmed GW23 double.

Fixtures till GW23: TOT (A), MUN (H), EVE (H). Potential double in GW21 – EVE (A), BRE (H), MCI (H).
4/6 home fixtures, Arsenal are still unbeaten at home this season. Of the two away fixtures, one is against Everton (18th in the league).

Arsenal Trio for DGWs?

xGI/90 from GW1-19: Jesus (0.8), Odegaard (0.6), Saka (0.6), Martinelli (0.5), Nketiah (0.5).
I have Martinelli and White, currently inclined towards upgrading Almiron to Odegaard for the DGWs.
The optimum Arsenal trio at the moment will consist of two midfielders and one defender.

Other teams – Brighton, Leeds, Palace

Players that can be considered in FPL (and TSB):

Brighton and Hove Albion – Mitoma (0.8%), Gross (11.5%), March (0.9%), Mac Allister (2.9%).
Leeds – Rodrigo (6.9%).
Crystal Palace – Zaha (11.8%).

Recommendations:

United triple-up in FPL looks like a clear decision, Shaw and Rashford are essential picks; Fernandes > Martial > Casemiro in case of attackers, and Dalot the clear pick in defence.
City triple-up is not recommended, however in case one does want to triple up on City then three attackers can be selected – Haaland, KDB, and Mahrez/Grealish/Foden; Mahrez is definitely the best pick of the three at the moment.
In the case of both Salah and Núñez, Salah can be sold and Núñez can be kept given the chance of a double in GW21.
Kane and Doherty look like the only Spurs players that can be considered in FPL at the moment, Spurs don’t have a good run of fixtures though.

You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 22/23 season here.

Bakchod FPL

Two football fans from Bangalore, playing and writing about Fantasy Football in our spare time.