Welcome to the next in my series of Fantasy Bundesliga articles summarising the stats from the previous few Bundesliga Matchdays (MDs), where we take a look at MD8 – MD11. Let’s see which teams and players could help you bring home the points after this round of unlimited transfers…


Bundesliga Team Stats

First, let’s take a look at some team-based stats to give us an idea of which teams have performed well over the last few MDs.

Attacking

Goals

  1. Bayern Munich | 16
  2. Borussia Dortmund | 9
  3. Mainz 05, RB Leipzig | 8
  4. SC Freiburg, Hoffenheim, Union Berlin | 7
  5. VfL Bochum, FC Augsburg | 6

xG (G – xG)

  1. Bayern Munich | 13.08 (+2.92)
  2. RB Leipzig | 10.44 (-2.44)
  3. Mainz 05 | 8.67 (-0.67)
  4. VfL Bochum | 7.71 (-1.71)
  5. Borussia Dortmund | 7.44 (+1.56)

Big chances created (MD8 – MD11)

  1. Bayern Munich | 15
  2. VfL Bochum | 14
  3. Mainz 05 | 12
  4. Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig | 10
  5. Wolfsburg, FC Augsburg | 7

xA (MD8 – MD11)

  1. Bayern Munich | 8.4
  2. RB Leipzig | 6.8
  3. Mainz 05 | 5.6
  4. VfL Bochum | 4.8
  5. Borussia Dortmund | 4.7

Another four MDs, another huge amount of goals, and xG racked up by Bayern Munich. They’ve been particularly clinical in this period, overperforming their xG by +2.92 to net 16 times and outscore the next best teams by at least seven goals. They also led the way for both big chance creation and xA over the last four MDs. These haven’t exactly come against weak opponents, either – Bayer Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, Union Berlin, and Freiburg were those that fell to the sword. With Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld up next, good coverage of their attack is all but essential. There’s always a worry of some rotation with a couple of Champions League games coming up, but they are safely top of their group and may even use those fixtures over BL games to rest some players.

Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig are the other regulars among the top attacking teams. Dortmund managed to outscore Leipzig in this period despite the latter’s notably higher xG: Leipzig’s high xG of 10.44 represented a -2.44 underperformance, while Dortmund overperformed their xG of 7.44 by +1.56. While the teams were level on big chances created (10), Leipzig were also more generally creative, accruing a higher xA during these games. This suggests they are more likely to continue to hit these levels, but Dortmund have been serial xG overperformers all season – 28 goals so far from an xG of 21.87.

Along with the regulars, there are a few surprises in terms of attacking threat in recent games. Over the last few MDs, Mainz 05 have added to their impressive defensive start to the campaign by upping their attacking prowess and placing third in terms of each goals, big chances, xG, and xA. This has largely been due to the emergence of a fruitful striking partnership between Karim Onisiwo and Jonathan Burkardt (more on this below).

VfL Bochum are the other surprise entry, netting six goals over the last 4 MDs and creating 14 big chances in the process, second behind Bayern’s 15. Their goal tally actually represents a notable underperformance of -1.71 relative to their xG of 7.71, which placed them at 4th in the xG table, above even Dortmund. Both Mainz and Bochum have underperformed their xG in these games, suggesting their promising goal threat could continue.

A special mention for the sharp attacking decline of VfB Stuttgart here to finish off, who have created just one big chance since MD3…

 

Defensive

Clean sheets

  1. VfL Bochum | 3
  2. Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg | 2
  3. Arminia Bielefeld, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, SC Freiburg, Hertha BSC, Union Berlin | 1

Goals conceded

  1. VfL Bochum | 2
  2. Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Mönchengladbach, SC Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Hertha BSC | 4
  3. Mainz 05, Hoffenheim, Eintracht Frankfurt, Arminia Bielefeld | 6

Best xGA (xGA – GC)

  1. Bayern Munich |  2.83 (-1.17)
  2. Borussia Mönchengladbach |  3.80 (-0.20)
  3. Hertha BSC | 3.81 (-0.19)
  4. VfL Bochum | 4.68 (+2.68)
  5. RB Leipzig | 4.91 (+0.91)

In addition to turning things around offensively, VfL Bochum really upped their game defensively over the last few MDs. The former occupants of the worst xGA top spot (MD4-MD7) placed best for clean sheets and goals conceded in this period. While they did overperform their xGA by +2.68 to achieve this (including a Manuel Riemann penalty save), they still rank fourth best on the xGA list. Therefore, they have been the surprise form team in terms of both attack and defense since the last international break.

As expected from the way they control their games, Bayern Munich again top the xGA list, despite only managing one clean sheet in the last four MDs. Similarly, Borussia Mönchengladbach also had promising xGA stats but failed to keep a clean sheet. Hertha Berlin followed Bochum in switching from the worst xGA list to the third best for xGA despite facing Frankfurt, Gladbach, Hoffenheim, and Leverkusen in the last four, with a slight underperformance of -0.19 relative to goals conceded. With good fixtures on the horizon for Hertha (Augsburg, Stuttgart, and Arminia Bielefeld in the next four), some of their defenders could be great value picks going forward – the often OOP Maximilian Mittelstädt (7.1M) is one to keep an eye on, in particular.

Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg managed a joint second highest two clean sheets out of four despite being fairly middle of the road for xGA: 5.68 and 6.39, respectively. This was a notable overperformance of +1.68 for Wolfsburg, but only a slight overperformance of +0.39 for Hoffenheim. The latter racked up little xGA in their wins (Augsburg and Hertha, both at home) and a large amount in their losses (Bayern and Bochum, both away), suggesting a significant disparity between their home and away form.

Worst xGA (xGA – GC)

  1. Eintracht Frankfurt | 11.78 (+5.78)
  2. FC Köln | 8.87 (-2.13)
  3. Bayer Leverkusen | 7.93 (-2.07)
  4. Arminia Bielefeld | 7.59 (+1.59)
  5. VfB Stuttgart |  7.45 (+0.45)

Despite having several seemingly favorable fixtures in the last four MDs, Eintracht Frankfurt were very underwhelming, as those of you who have owned their players Bundesliga Fantasy will know. They aggregated a whopping xGA of 11.78 in these fixtures, a rate of 2.95 per game! Conceding an xGA of over two in games against each Hertha, Bochum, and Fürth tells you how poor they have been defensively. They seem to have been incredibly lucky to have overperformed their xGA by a huge +5.78 and come away with four points and just six goals conceded. This was certainly not expected when Glasner took over, and he will surely work on tightening up their defence soon.

After Frankfurt, it’s FC Köln who had the second-worst xGA since the last international break, conceding 11 goals from an xGA of 8.87. Bayer Leverkusen have also performed poorly defensively in this period, although 3.45 of their xGA came from their 5-1 loss to Bayern in MD8. VfB Stuttgart’s defensive numbers don’t make much better reading than their attacking numbers, with them now lying amongst the worst teams for xGA in these recent games. SG Fürth again manage to stay out of the five worst teams for xGA, but have still conceded a joint second most 10 goals over the last few games.



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Fantasy Bundesliga Player Stats

Now let’s focus on the individual players that have been posting good statistics in the last four fixtures, who could thus be good picks for the next few MDs.

 

Goals, Expected Goals (xG) and Shots

Goals

  1. Robert Lewandowski (FCB) | 6
  2. Anthony Modeste (KOE), Jonathan Burkardt (M05) | 4
  3. Serge Gnabry (FCB), Yussuf Poulsen (RBL) | 3

xG (G – xG)

  1. Robert Lewandowski (FCB) | 4.38 (+1.62)
  2. Karim Onisiwo (M05) | 3.31 (-2.31)
  3. Leroy Sané (FCB) | 3.28 (-2.28)
  4. Yussuf Poulsen (RBL) |  3.17 (-0.17)
  5. Jonathan Burkardt (M05) |  2.73 (+1.27)

Shots (MD1 – MD11)

  1. Robert Lewandowski (FCB) | 46
  2. Anthony Modeste (KOE)  | 43
  3. Andrej Kramaric (TSG) | 39
  4. Leroy Sané (FCB) | 34
  5. Christopher Nkunku (RBL) | 32

Robert Lewandowski (FOR, 19.4M) continues his reign at the top of the xG charts, also returning to the top of the goalscorer list for this latest period of MDs. He also maintains his position as the top shot taker in the league. It’s clear why he’s the one you can’t go without in Bundesliga Fantasy.

This being said, however, it’s important not to overlook the other members of the Bayern attack, who also consistently post good stats and bring in huge points hauls. Since the last international break, one of the standouts has been Leroy Sané (FOR, 15.6M). The lethal winger was 3rd for xG in this period despite only starting three games, in which he managed 16 pts, 10 pts, and 14 pts. He is a keen shot taker – 16 of the aforementioned points came from goal attempts – which has now brought him to place amongst the top five shot takers in the league over the season. He has been more consistent than Serge Gnabry (FOR, 15.6M) this season, despite the latter having netted two more goals in the recent games.

After writing in the last article about a possible focal point switch to Sebastian Andersson for the Köln attack, Anthony Modeste (FOR, 8.4M) has re-emerged as the go-to man for the Billy Goats. He has proved himself to be a consistently good bet for goals and shots, ranking amongst the top scorers and shot takers in the league throughout the season so far. He placed just outside the top five for xG in the last four MDs with 2.66 (+1.34 overperformance). Köln have only failed to score in two games this season, and the main man Modeste should be a relatively safe pick, especially given his affordable price.

The above stats also showcase the main reason for Mainz’s notable attacking improvement in this period: the strong striking partnership formed between Jonathan Burkardt (FOR, 7.2M) and Karim Onisiwo (FOR, 7.8M). In their five games since the last international break (including a cup game vs. Arminia Bielefeld), the pair have passed through a particularly fruitful period in which they have scored seven goals (five for Burkardt, two for Onisiwo) and produced five assists (two for Burkardt, three for Onisiwo), with four of the latter being for each other.

While Onisiwo accrued a larger xG, Burkardt managed more goals and thus appears to be more clinical. On the other hand, Onisiwo also performed better in terms of expected and actual assists (an xA of 1.66 in the league, compared to Burkardt’s 0.78). With little to separate them in terms of value and points earned in this period (53 pts for Burkardt and 45 pts for Onisiwo), you shouldn’t go too far wrong bringing in either of the two.

The numbers also show that Yussuf Poulsen (FOR, 11.4M) has had a promising last few games, but the news of a torn muscle fiber will sadly put him out for several weeks.

 

Assists and Expected Assists (xA)

Assists

  1. Thomas Müller (FCB) | 6
  2. Dayot Upamecano (FCB) | 4
  3. Genki Haraguchi (FCU) | 3
  4. Karim Onisiwo (M05), Christopher Nkunku (RBL), Vincenzo Grifo (SCF), Andrej Kramaric (TSG), Jude Bellingham (BVB), Maximillian Mittelstädt (BSC) | 2

xA (A – xA)

  1. Thomas Müller (FCB) | 3.72 (+2.28)
  2. Dominik Szoboszlai (RBL) | 2.04 (-1.04)
  3. Dayot Upamecano (FCB) | 1.68 (+2.32)
  4. Karim Onisiwo (M05) | 1.66 (+0.34)
  5. Filip Kostić (SGE) | 1.50 (-0.50)

The assist-based stats shine a light on another key and consistent member of the lethal Bayern Munich attack, Thomas Müller (FOR, 17M), a modern master in the art of playing behind the striker. Müller was comfortably highest for xA in the last four MDs, which brought him a total of 6 assists in these four games, thanks to his clinical teammates. He’s the third-highest point scorer in Bundesliga Fantasy so far and the second-highest for forwards behind Lewandowski, but is only owned by 15% of players. It’s strange to think that such a player can be somewhat of a differential, and he is definitely worth considering with Bayern’s (extra) favorable upcoming fixtures.

Müller’s defensive teammate Dayot Upamecano (DEF, 12.5M) is a much more unusual player to appear on top creators lists. While one of his four assists was a lucky deflection from a poor clearance, the remainder were genuine: a set-piece routine, a defence splitting pass from deep, and a layoff after a surging run forward. Despite this, it’s probably worth taking this with a pinch of salt, given that Upamecano had an xA of zero before this set of MDs…

Dominik Szoboszlai (MID, 11.9M) is really starting to solidify his name as one of the top players for Bundesliga Fantasy potential. His creative prowess is highlighted here, with him aggregating an xA of 2.04 and 52 pts over the last four MDs from just three starts and 276 minutes played. While minutes are a bit of a worry for him, the biggest of his points hauls in this period came from a 27-minute cameo off the bench against Fürth, which shows what he can do even with limited game time. Note he is also the second-highest point scorer among midfielders so far, behind only his teammate Christopher Nkunku. He looks to be capable of matching some of the typical highest scorers in the game for a more agreeable price, so he should definitely be on your radar for the weeks ahead.

As mentioned above, Karim Onisiwo (FOR, 7.8M) has performed well creatively in recent games, placing fourth for xA in this period. Despite somewhat underwhelming points hauls by his standards, Filip Kostić (MID, 15.2M) has still managed to make the top five for xA in this period, which shouldn’t be overlooked.

 

Shots Saved

Aside from clean sheets and goals conceded, the crucial statistic for Fantasy Bundesliga goalkeepers is shots saved. Below are the top shot-stoppers in the league for the last four MDs. Their points earned through saves are listed in brackets (goalkeepers gain three pts per two shots kept, but there are mismatches due to individual game totals).

  1. Mark Flekken (SCF) | 20 (27 pts)
  2. Lukáš Hrádecky (B04), Fabian Bredlow (VFB) | 19 (27 pts, 30 pts)
  3. Kevin Trapp (SGE) | 16 (21 pts)
  4. Stefan Ortega (DSC), Gregor Kobel (BVB), Yann Sommer (BMG) | 14 (18 pts, 21 pts, 15 pts)
  5. Manuel Riemann (VFL), Manuel Neuer (FCB), Robin Zentner (M05) | 12 (15 pts, 15 pts, 15 pts)

Mark Flekken (7.4M) has been Mr. Consistent amongst Bundesliga Fantasy goalkeepers this season, this time topping the leaderboard for shots saved over the last four MDs. He has now also usurped Lukáš Hrádecky (9.1M) also to top the save percentage list for the season, stopping 83.0% of shots on target faced. While also consistent and capable of high points hauls, Hrádecky’s price makes Flekken the better value option. He is behind only Manuel Riemann (5.5M) for Points/Value amongst regularly starting keepers – if you’re struggling to choose, you likely won’t go too far wrong with one of this latter pair.

In his short spell in the first team, Fabian Bredlow (1.5M) has racked up a large save tally that places him amongst the top shot-stoppers in the league over the last four games (thanks in part to VfB Stuttgart’s poor form). However, his opportunity only came as a result of Florian Müller (7.6M) being struck with COVID, and the latter is expected to return to the first team after the current international break. Sadly, Bredlow’s time as a brilliant value pick is likely up, and thus his (underwhelming) low-priced counterpart Marius Funk (1M) is now the cheapest starting Bundesliga Fantasy keeper.

 

Duels Won

Finally, let’s take a look at the current Duels Won leaderboard from the Official Bundesliga website (unfortunately, there’s little more info than this available from them). The total points they have earned from these exploits are included in brackets, which consider their in-game positions (note that these are aggregated points from the individual games, so they may mismatch the total duels won).

  1. Lucas Höler (SCF) | 158 (26 pts)
  2. Danilo Soares (VFL) | 148 (50 pts)
  3. Wataru Endo (VFB) |  142 (25 pts)
  4. Nico Schlotterbeck (SCF) | 141 (48 pts)
  5. Jude Bellingham (BVB) | 137 (23 pts)

Lucas Höler (FOR, 7.8M) storms to the top of the duel-winning leaderboard after not appearing in any previous top fives, thanks largely to an amazing 33 duels won in MD11 vs Bayern – note this huge tally only resulted in 6pts, due to the low points earned by midfielders/forwards from duel wins.

As mentioned earlier, the stats suggest that VfL Bochum have been in decent form both offensively and defensively as of late, and Danilo Soares (DEF, 6.8M) has again shown his prowess as a consistent top duel winner. Therefore, he could be a good value option if you’re looking to punt on a defender in the coming MDs (Bochum play FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld in MDs 14 and 16). Wataru Endo (MID, 9.1M) and Nico Schlotterbeck (DEF, 8.2M) remain amongst the top five duel winners, while former leader Mohamed Simakan (DEF, 9.8M) now drops out and Jude Bellingham (MID, 12.4M) enters.



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In summary

Good coverage of Bayern Munich’s attack is close to essential for at least the next couple of games, and a double or triple up on the most threatening attack in the league could be a sensible play. Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig are the other teams posting consistently good attacking statistics, but Mainz 05’s recent movement from strong defence to more promising attack is also worth noting.

However, it’s VfL Bochum who have provided the biggest surprise since the last international break, placing amongst the top teams for both offensive and defensive stats. Hertha Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach performed well for xGA in this period, with the former having particularly good fixtures coming up. In contrast, Eintracht Frankfurt performed very poorly defensively despite their seemingly favorable fixtures (worst for xGA). Despite this, it was FC Köln who had the leakiest defence in recent games.

It’s no surprise to see that Robert Lewandowski leads the way again for goal threat, but teammates Leroy Sané and Thomas Müller should not be overlooked given their capability of also bringing home big points hauls from attacking returns. Anthony Modeste is back to being Köln’s leading man in attack and is a great pick for his price. The strong striking partnership that has formed between Jonathan Burkardt and Karim Onisiwo has been largely responsible for the notable improvements in Mainz’s attack mentioned above. Both of the pair are good value, in-form options for forward spots.

Dominik Szoboszlai has shown his potential to be one of the top players for Bundesliga Fantasy in recent games, racking up significant points hauls at a reduced price relative to the usual best performers. Despite Frankfurt being underwhelming, Filip Kostić still placed in the top five for xA over the last four games.

Mark Flekken continues to be Mr. Consistent in Bundesliga Fantasy amongst goalkeepers with the highest save percentage in the league, and he and Manuel Riemann have the highest points/value amongst the regular starters. Lukáš Hrádecky is another good option, but his higher price reduces his appeal. Fabian Bredlow was a brilliant value option in this period, but Florian Müller’s return means Marius Funk is the only cheap playing goalkeeper left. Lucas Höler’s recent exploits caused him to storm to the top of the duel-winning leaderboard, but second-placed Danilo Soares could be a savvy pick to capitalize on Bochum’s recent defensive improvements.

 

Duels won, shots and shots saved stats taken from the BL website. The remainder from Understat or FB Ref.


You can find additional Fantasy Bundesliga resources for the 21/22 season here.

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