Welcome to the next in my series of articles summarizing the stats from the previous few Fantasy Bundesliga Matchdays (MDs), this time for MD4 – MD7. I hope it provides some assistance for your unlimited transfer selections and helps you to bring home the points!


Bundesliga Team Stats

Again, before looking at the stats for individual players, let’s first take a look at some team-based stats to give us an idea of which teams have been performing the best over the last few MDs.

Attacking

Goals

  1. Bayern Munich | 15
  2. Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig | 11
  3. Borussia Dortmund | 10
  4. Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7
  5. SC Freiburg, FC Köln, Hertha Berlin | 6

xG (G – xG)

  1. Bayern Munich | 14.04 (+0.96)
  2. RB Leipzig | 9.10 (+1.90)
  3. Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8.05 (-1.05)
  4. FC Köln | 7.17 (-1.17)
  5. Borussia Dortmund | 6.68 (+3.32)

Bayern Munich retain their place at the top of both the goals and xG lists, aggregating another whopping xG sum of 14.04 over the last four fixtures, an xG per game of 3.51. Their xG underperformance from the first three fixtures swung to an xG overperformance of +0.96 over these four games, thus moving them closer to being on track with their xG overall. As expected from their dominance over many years, they are again the attacking team of choice this season.

RB Leipzig have significantly upped their game since the first few fixtures and sit second for goals over the last four games. While their 11 goals represented a notable xG overperformance of +1.90 that could suggest some regression is due, they are still placed second for xG over this period (no doubt helped by fixtures against Hertha and Bochum).

On the other hand, Bayer Leverkusen’s 11 goals came as a whopping overperformance of +4.52, such that their xG of 6.48 doesn’t even place in the xG top five for the fixtures in this period. Leverkusen are hence going through a period of sustained xG overperformance (+8.66 over the season so far!). While I’m thus tempted to say again they are due some regression, their top attacking performers’ confidence and clinical finishing (Patrik Schick, Florian Wirtz, and Moussa Diaby) is definitely a factor.

Borussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach, and FC Köln are the other teams to place in both top fives. Dortmund again overperformed their xG, this time more significantly (G – xG of +3.32), thus indicating a similar situation to Leverkusen (though their season overperformance is less dramatic, at +4.58). In contrast, Gladbach and Köln underperformed their xG in this period. This moves Köln closer to an agreement with their xG, but it is interesting to note that they have placed in the top five for xG both from MD1 – MD3 and from MD4 – MD7.

This has come with mixed fixture difficulty, including games against Bayern and RB Leipzig, and shows their consistent attacking quality this season. Gladbach are a new entry in both lists, and their attacking improvement has come at a good time, with them arguably having the best fixtures over the next four MDs – who’s ready for Stindl to troll us again?

One final thing to note is that VfB Stuttgart, who were third for both goals and xG from MD1 – MD3, have shown a significant drop-off in their attacking numbers, aggregating an xG of only 3.10 from MD4 – MD7 and scoring only five goals in this period.

Big chances created (MD1 – MD7)

  1. Bayern Munich | 28
  2. RB Leipzig | 17
  3. FC Köln, Hoffenheim | 15
  4. Borussia Dortmund, VfB Stuttgart | 14
  5. Borussia Mönchengladbach, SC Freiburg | 12

xA per 90 (MD1 – MD7)

  1. Bayern Munich | 2.23
  2. Borussia Dortmund | 1.47
  3. RB Leipzig | 1.36
  4. Hoffenheim | 1.23
  5. FC Köln | 1.19

Again, there are few surprises in the top fives for big chances created and xA per 90 (note these are MD1 – MD7, in this case). Bayern have overtaken Stuttgart and Dortmund, respectively, to now top the rankings for both stats. Stuttgart’s attacking drop-off is once more highlighted here, with them moving out of the xA per 90 top-five and having created only one big chance in the last four MDs. On the other hand, while Hoffenheim maintain their presence in both lists, they have only created 5 big chances from MD4 – MD7 and their xA per 90 has fallen (from 1.51 in MD1 – MD3). After a poor start in the first three MDs, RB Leipzig are now present in both lists, in line with their recent upturn in form.

 

Defensive

Clean sheets

  1. FC Augsburg, Bayer Leverkusen, SC Freiburg, RB Leipzig, Mainz 05, Union Berlin | 2
  2. Arminia Bielefeld, Bayern Munich, VfL Bochum, Hoffenheim, Borussia Mönchengladbach, VfB Stuttgart, Wolfsburg | 1
  3. Borussia Dortmund, SG Fürth, Hertha BSC, FC Köln, Eintracht Frankfurt | 0

Goals conceded

  1. SC Freiburg | 2
  2. Borussia Mönchengladbach, Mainz 05 | 3
  3. Bayern Munich, FC Köln, Eintracht Frankfurt | 4
  4. Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig, Union Berlin, VfB Stuttgart, FC Augsburg | 5
  5. Hoffenheim | 6

Best xGA (xGA – GC)

  1. Bayern Munich |  2.63 (-1.37)
  2. Hoffenheim |  3.21 (-2.79)
  3. Mainz 05 | 3.43 (+0.43)
  4. Union Berlin | 3.62 (-1.38)
  5. Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3.82 (+0.82)

Over the last few fixtures, it’s SC Freiburg that have the lowest goals conceded and are joint top of the clean sheet list. Their xGA of 3.87 places them just outside of the top five best in this case, however, with a notable overperformance of +1.87 relative to goals conceded. This has certainly been helped by strong performances from Mark Flekken (GK, 6.8M), whose high save percentage (80.8%; second highest in the league) has made him one of the most reliable Fantasy Bundesliga keepers this season.

Bayern Munich accrued the lowest xGA from MD4 – MD7 at 2.63, though only managed one clean sheet in this period and conceded 4 goals, constituting an underperformance of -1.37. However, this is a notable improvement on the xGA of 3.52 they accumulated after the first three fixtures and is thus an indication that Julian Nagelsmann is starting to sure up their defence. Mainz 05 retain places near the top of all three lists, exhibiting their continued defensive solidity.

Union Berlin again performed well for xGA, but also continued to concede more than expected during this period. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg has managed only one clean sheet in the last four games and no longer place amongst the best teams for goals conceded and xGA (for which they are now placed 7th worst), showing a significant downturn in their defensive performances.

With six goals conceded, Hoffenheim are a surprise inclusion at second-best for xGA, but their xGA – G underperformance of -2.79 suggests they may have been unlucky. This is a significant improvement relative to the first three MDs, where they placed 4th bottom for xGA. Borussia Mönchengladbach have done well to keep to a low number of goals, and xG conceded given the difficulty of their last two fixtures against Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Their defenders could be worth keeping an eye on with their excellent upcoming fixtures, especially with them currently having two very cheap starters in Joe Scally (2.5M) and Jordan Beyer (1.8M).

Worst xGA (xGA – GC)

  1. VfL Bochum | 10.25 (-2.75)
  2. FC Augsburg | 9.15 (+4.15)
  3. Arminia Bielefeld | 7.89 (-0.11)
  4. RB Leipzig | 7.85 (+2.85)
  5. Hertha BSC |  7.69 (-2.31)

There are few surprises in terms of teams to target for attacking returns, with most of the usual suspects appearing in the worst xGA list. FC Augsburg may have kept two clean sheets and conceded only five goals, but their xGA of 9.15 suggests they have been lucky not to concede more. However, SG Fürth, one of the teams most of us have been targeting since MD1, has shown a strong improvement in their defensive capabilities and now place outside the five worst teams for xGA. This is particularly impressive given that their last two fixtures have were against Bayern and FC Köln, two of the stronger attacking sides in the league this season. RB Leipzig’s attacking improvements appear to have come at the cost of weaker defensive performances, and they are the surprise inclusion as 4th worst for xGA (4.30 did come from their game against Bayern, however).



Fantasy Bundesliga Player Stats

Now let’s hone in on the individual players that have been posting good statistics in the last four fixtures and thus could be good picks in Bundesliga Fantasy for the next few MDs.

 

Goals, Expected Goals (xG) and Shots

Goals

  1. Patrik Schick (B04), Erling Haaland (BVB), Christopher Nkunku (RBL) | 4
  2. Joshua Kimmich (FCB), Ellyes Shkiri (KOE), Raphael Guerreiro (BVB), Florian Wirtz (B04) | 3
  3. Robert Lewandowski (FCB), Anthony Modeste (KOE), Filip Kostić (SGE) + 11 players | 2

xG (G – xG)

  1. Robert Lewandowski (FCB) | 3.84 (-1.84)
  2. Christopher Nkunku (RBL) | 2.67 (+1.33)
  3. Sebastian Andersson (KOE) | 2.55 (-1.55)
  4. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (FCB) |  2.44 (-0.44)
  5. Wout Weghorst (WOB) |  2.43 (-0.43)

Shots (MD1 – MD7)

  1. Robert Lewandowski (FCB) | 30
  2. Andrej Kramaric (TSG) | 28
  3. Erling Haaland (BVB), Anthony Modeste (KOE) | 26
  4. Patrik Schick (B04) | 25
  5. Leon Goretzka (FCB) | 22

For the second period in a row, Robert Lewandowski (FOR, 18.4M) tops the xG list and holds the top spot for shots over the season so far. Unusually for him, he has, however, significantly underperformed his xG in the last four MDs, grabbing only two goals from an xG of 3.84. Don’t worry, though; this indicates that the chances are still coming, and this underperformance is not likely to last for long – “It’s Lewandowski!”

On the other hand, Christopher Nkunku (MID, 15.3M) is enjoying a rich vein of form (including an impressive Champions League hat trick against Man City), netting a joint-high four league goals and overperforming his xG by +1.33 in the last four MDs. Even without the overperformance, he has accrued the 2nd highest xG in the league in this period, suggesting he should be good to continue his goalscoring exploits going forward.

Nkunku is joined at the top of the goalscoring list by Patrik Schick (FOR, 14.6M) and Erling Haaland (FOR, 17.6M). Both of the pair remain amongst the top shot takers in the league so far but neither lies in the top five for xG in the last four games, with them significantly overperforming their xG by +1.74 and +2.14 respectively in this period. Both have looked clinical and in top form throughout the season, and Schick in particular still appears to be riding on a high from the Euros. However, while reading this, it is important to remember that Haaland only played 2 of the four games between MD3 and MD7, highlighting how impressive a player he is.

There appears to have been a shift in attacking focal point for Köln, with Sebastian Andersson (FOR, 8.8M) placing at 3rd in the league for xG from MD4 – MD7, while MD1 – MD3’s 6th-placed Anthony Modeste (FOR, 7.5M) has now dropped down to 33rd for this period, with an xG of 0.96. While Modeste still outscored Andersson over these MDs, the latter may still be the Köln striker of choice if he sharpens up his finishing. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting’s (FOR, 6.9M) placing at 4th acts as a showcase for Bayern’s attacking prowess, with him incredibly having accumulated this while playing only 59 minutes during the last four games. Wout Weghorst (FOR, 15.3M) has his second top-five placing in the xG charts but continues to underperform his xG.

Two of the joint second-highest goalscorers, Ellyes Shkiri (MID, 7.6M) and Raphael Guerreiro (DEF, 15M), are unfortunately now injured and set to miss at least the next MD. The other two, Joshua Kimmich (MID, 16.4M) and Florian Wirtz (MID, 12.4M), have been key players for their respective teams in terms of goal and assist threat and are likely to remain to be two of the best midfield picks in Fantasy Bundesliga. Andrej Kramaric (FOR, 15.4M) has shifted from creator to shot taker in the last few MDs, moving out of the assists/xA top fives (below) and up to be the second-highest shot taker in the league so far. He and Leon Goretzka (MID, 15.1M) are the new entries in the top shot takers list for MD1 – MD7.

 

Assists and Expected Assists (xA)

Assists

  1. Florian Wirtz (B04), Filip Kostić (SGE) | 3
  2. Leroy Sané (FCB), Dominik Szoboszlai (RBL), Patrick Hermann (BMG) + 7 players | 2

xA (A – xA)

  1. Florian Wirtz (B04) | 1.98 (+1.02)
  2. Joshua Kimmich (FCB) | 1.81 (-0.81)
  3. Jonas Hector (KOE)  | 1.58 (+0.42)
  4. Leon Goretzka (FCB) | 1.56 (-0.56)
  5. Leroy Sané (FCB) | 1.55 (+0.45)

Two of last season’s Fantasy Bundesliga favourites, Florian Wirtz (MID, 12.4M) and Filip Kostić (MID, 15.2M), led the way for assists over the last four fixtures. 18-year-old starlet Wirtz has risen rapidly to become one of the league’s top players and is now central to Leverkusen’s exciting attack. Three goals, three assists, and a league-high xA of 1.98 in the last four games tell you the kind of form he’s in. He’s currently the fourth highest scorer in Bundesliga Fantasy on 85 pts, despite playing only 368 minutes of the season so far, certifying him as one of the top picks in the game.

In a similar vein, I mentioned in my pre-season article on Eintracht Frankfurt how an in-form Kostić is close to essential for Fantasy Bundesliga. He looks to be settled and committed now that his transfer debacle has been resolved, and he has picked up where he left off with two goals, three assists, and 12.5 pts per game in the last four matchdays – note that this includes a goal, assist and 17-point haul against Bayern in MD7.

Bayern trio Joshua Kimmich (MID, 16.4M)Leroy Sané (FOR, 14.8M), and Leon Goretzka (MID, 15.1M) have all been key contributors to the most threatening attack in the league in the last four games, with their creativeness highlighted here in their xA numbers. Despite playing at left-back, Jonas Hector (MID, 9.8M) has proven to be a very creative member of the Köln attack and ranks 3rd for xA over this period.

 

Shots Saved

Aside from clean sheets and goals conceded, the crucial statistic for Fantasy Bundesliga goalkeepers is shots saved. Below are the top shot-stoppers in the league for the last four MDs. Their points earned through saves are listed in brackets (goalkeepers gain three pts per two shots kept, but there are mismatches due to individual game totals).

  1. Kevin Trapp (SGE), Lukáš Hrádecky (B04) | 18 (24 pts, 21 pts)
  2. Manuel Riemann (VFL) | 17 (21 pts)
  3. Timo Horn (KOE) | 15 (21 pts)
  4. Alexander Schwolow (BSC) | 14 (18 pts)
  5. Rafał Gikiewicz (FCA) | 13 (15 pts)

There’s a surprise at the top of the list, with Kevin Trapp (8.8M) joint-leading the way for shots saved over the last few MDs, a keeper who is not usually known for aggregating large numbers of saves. However, this has been heavily skewed by his heroics in previous MD’s fixture against Bayern, in which he racked up 10 saves to help Frankfurt see out a memorable win. Lukáš Hrádecky (9.1M) has been in strong form in recent weeks (including a strong performance vs. Celtic outside of the Bundesliga) and has the highest save percentage in the league (81.8%). However, despite their recent exploits, both him and Trapp are still likely too expensive to justify a place in our teams.

Sascha Burchert (4.6M) is no longer present on the list due partly to the noticeable improvement in Fürth’s defense and to him losing his place to Marius Funk (1.3M) in the last MD. Funk is likely to be a popular pick in this current round of unlimited transfers, with the chance of a 1.3m starting keeper being hard to pass up. On the other hand, Manuel Riemann (5.2M) has remained close to the top of the saves list in this period. Bochum have conceded the most goals in the league over the last four MDs (13), however; a potentially worrying sign, even if Bayern were responsible for seven of these.

Of the remaining three, it’s worth noting that Köln and Hertha are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, whereas Augsburg have managed 3. Rafał Gikiewicz (7M) may therefore be a safer pick than both Timo Horn (5.9M) and Alexander Schwolow (6.1M), but it’s Horn who has racked up the most points so far (37 pts, with Gikiewicz and Schwolow on 34 pts and 10 pts, respectively).

 

Duels Won

Finally, let’s take a look at the current Duels Won leaderboard from the Official Bundesliga website (unfortunately, there’s little more info than this available from them). The total points they have earned from these exploits are included in brackets, which take into account their in-game positions (note that these are aggregated points from the individual games, so may mismatch the total duels won).

  1. Mohamed Simakan (RBL) | 102 (36 pts)
  2. Wataru Endo (VFB) |  101 (18 pts)
  3. Nico Schlotterbeck (SCF) | 95 (32 pts)
  4. Danilo Soares (VFL) | 94 (30 pts)
  5. Kevin Mbabu (WOL) | 93 (30 pts)

Mohamed Simakan (DEF, 9.8M) and Wataru Endo (MID, 9M) retain their places for total duels won at the top of the list. Simakan remains to be relatively cheap and represents a good value route to points for this reason. Endo is less so due to the lower points totals gained for duels won by midfielders. Nico Schlotterbeck (DEF, 7.9M) is a new entry in the top five, and it is interesting to note that he is 3rd and 4th for Freiburg in terms of npxG and npxG+xA, respectively, so far this season. Freiburg do face RB Leipzig and Bayern in the next four BL games, but he could still represent a good value defensive option.

Bochum may have had a tough time on their return to the Bundesliga, but it can be seen that Danilo Soares (DEF, 6M) has managed to accumulate a large number of duels won in the process. However, a competitive fixture against Fürth (MD8) is their only favourable fixture in the next four MDs. Despite Wolfsburg’s recent downturn in form, Kevin Mbabu (DEF, 10.9M) has also kept his place in the top five.



In summary

The top attacking team in the league by far is again, unsurprisingly, Bayern Munich, who have also performed best for xGA in the last four MDs – certainly consider their players, if you didn’t know to already! Borussia Dortmund and FC Köln have also continued to post strong attacking stats, but RB Leipzig’s recent upsurge in form has brought them strongly into the picture as well. Borussia Mönchengladbach have been posting good attacking stats and reasonable defensive stats, and their players are well worth consideration ahead of some very favourable fixtures. This season, Mainz 05 and Union Berlin have established themselves as decent defensive teams, though Hoffenheim have shown recent signs of improvement based on their xGA numbers.

Robert Lewandowski continues to lead the way in terms of xG, though is going through a patch of underperformance relative to goals scored. In-form Christopher Nkunku follows him in the xG charts, whose four goals over the last four MDs placed him as a joint-top goalscorer in this period with fellow premiums Patrik Schick and Erling Haaland — note that Haaland only played in two of those four games, however! If Köln’s Sebastian Andersson finds his shooting boots soon and performs close to his xG he could become a good value forward in Bundesliga Fantasy.

Florian Wirtz and Filip Kostić have been both key creators and goalscorers for their respective teams over the last few MDs, racking up many points in the process, and both should be strongly considered as fixture-proof options for your Fantasy Bundesliga teams. Some of the typical suspects from Bayern – Joshua KimmichLeon Goretzka, and Leroy Sané – have also performed highly for expected and actual goal involvement in this period and should remain to be good options going forward.

For once more expensive goalkeepers occupy the top spot in the shots saved list, though Kevin Trapp and Lukáš Hrádecky are probably too expensive to justify taking up Fantasy Bundesliga keeper spots. The much cheaper Manuel Riemann remains close to the top of the list, but the negative effects of Bochum’s defensive leakiness are worth considering, given the presence of more steady keeper options such as Mark FlekkenMohamed Simakan continues his reign at the top of the duels won charts, but cheaper defensive options Nico Schlotterbeck and Danilo Soares have now worked themselves into the top five.

 

Duels won, shots and shots saved stats taken from the BL website. The remainder from Understat or FB Ref.


You can find additional Fantasy Bundesliga resources for the 21/22 season here.

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