AFCON Fantasy: Player Picks for Matchday 5

With AFCON 2021 down to its final eight teams, current world #5 Robbie previews the quarter-finals and shares his favourite player picks in AFCON Fantasy for MD5.

AFCON Quarter-finals Preview

Day 1:
1. The Gambia 🇬🇲 vs. 🇨🇲 Cameroon. My prediction is a 1-2 in favour of the hosts Cameroon.
2. Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 vs. 🇹🇳 Tunisia. My prediction is 0-1 in favour of Tunisia.

Day 2:
1. Egypt 🇪🇬 vs. 🇲🇦 Morocco. My prediction is 1-2 in favour of title contenders Morocco.
2. Senegal 🇸🇳 vs. 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea. My prediction is 1-0 in favour of unbeaten Senegal, who are yet to concede a single goal.

Despite high expectations and good underlying stats, we have seen too many low scoring games that I wouldn’t dare to predict high scoring games, but some things I guess could happen:

These games: 🇬🇲 vs. 🇨🇲 and 🇪🇬 vs. 🇲🇦 could be higher scoring games than 🇧🇫 vs. 🇹🇳 and 🇸🇳 vs. 🇬🇶

AFCON Tournament Odds & Favorites

Things have changed a bit since before the tournament, and as it stands now, Senegal are the biggest favorites according to bookmakers, followed by hosts Cameroon, Morocco, and Egypt. @OptaAnalyst has SEN, EGY, MAR, and Tunisia with the highest chances to win the tournament.

AFCON Quarter-Finals Odds

As predicted, Cameroon & Senegal are huge favourites against Gambia & Equatorial Guinea, respectively. Tunisia & Morocco are slight favourites v Burkina Faso & Egypt. But, as we’ve seen so far, surprises can happen. A good defense can get you to a penalty shootout & then who knows what can happen.

Transfers Rules for QF

As you all know, we get eight free transfers for each round for the quarter-final, semi-final and final. You also can have more players from each team now:

• QF: 4 players per team
• SF: 8 players per team
• Final: 12 players per team

Teams to Target

Based on odds, next opponent if the team wins in the QF and road to the final, this is my rank of teams which you can target to get your players:
1. Senegal
2. Cameroon
3. Morocco
4. Tunisia
5. Egypt
6. Burkina Faso
7. Equatorial Guinea
8. The Gambia

Note: The higher the rank, the more players you should target.

Players to Target

This time I will break down the players from each team in these categories:
🟢 Must  (1-2 players from each team)
🔵 Can (0-1 player from each team)
🟣 Ultra differentials (0-2 players in your team)

Senegal 🇸🇳

Important stats:

• Goals conceded = 0
• xGoTC (Expected Goals Conceded from Shots on Target) = 0.7
• SoTf (Shots on Target faced) = 4

Senegal have scored three goals so far (one penalty) but have also conceded zero goals in the tournament, being the only team to do so. In the first four games, the Senegalese keepers have only faced four shots on target. Their opponents in the quarter-finals, Equatorial Guinea, only have eight SoTf and 1.3 xGoTC. It is recommended to target 3-4 defenders/the keeper and optionally a midfielder or forward from the team.

Cheikhou Kouyaté 🔵

Cameroon 🇨🇲

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 9
• xGoTC = 5.5
• SoTf = 17

Cameroon is the team with the best-attacking stats and the worst defensive stats among the quarter-finalists. Don’t expect a cleansheet here. Opponents Gambia only have nine SoTf and 2.1 xGoTC but can be another challenge for Cameroon. I recommended getting 3-4 midfielders/forwards and possibly a keeper or defender from the team.

Attacking from the left side, Ekambi has thrived as the leading goalscorer after Aboubakar in the team as well as the tournament (tied with Gabadinho Mhango and Ibrahima Koné – both eliminated).

Moumi Ngamaleu 🔵

Nouhou Tolo 🟣

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 7
• xGoTC = 2.9
• SoTf = 7

Morocco has good attacking stats combined with good defensive stats. SoTf is third-lowest among teams in the quarter-finals (behind Tunisia and Senegal). They are also fifth for xGoTC. Opponents Egypt have a high SoTf and xGoTC, but they also have Salah, who is always a big threat. I recommend getting 1-3 midfielders/forwards and 1-3 defenders or the keeper.

Boufal is the creative brain behind the team’s attack, and his two goals are proof he is one of the better players in the tournament.

Selim Amallah 🔵

Morocco’s captain and centre-back, Saïss, is very involved on set pieces for the team. His xGnp is the highest in the team.

Ryan Mmaee 🟣

Tunisia 🇹🇳

Important stats:

• Goals conceded = 2 (1 penalty)
• xGoTC = 0.6
• SoTf = 3

Tunisia has been one of the best defensive teams so far. Their xGoTC and SoTf is the best in the tournament. Quarter-final opponents Burkina Faso have 12 SoTf & 2.9 xGoTc, the third-worst among quarter-finalists. I recommend getting 1-3 defenders/keeper and 1-3 midfielders/forward from the team.

Jaziri hould be a fine choice if he starts. I’ve been hearing that fans want him to be benched. He has also missed a penalty recently.

Youssef Msakni 🔵

The team’s regular left-back missed games on matchdays 3 & 4 because of covid. He should be back and starting this time.

Mohamed Dräger 🟣

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 2
• Goals conceded = 1
• xGoTC = 4.7
• SoTf = 15

Despite conceding just one goal, Egypt have the second-highest xGoTC and SoTf behind Cameroon, but scoring seven fewer goals so far. They have a tough game against Morocco, so I recommend getting 1-2 defenders/midfielders/forwards and possibly a keeper.

Burkina Faso 🇧🇫

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 4
• Goals conceded = 4 (3 penalties, 1 own goal)
• xGoTC = 2.9
• SoTf = 12

Burkina Faso have the third-highest xGoTC and SoTf amongst QF-ists. On the other hand, Opposition Tunisia has the best xGoTC and SoTf in the tournament. They are a very solid team. I recommend getting 0-1 goalkeeper/defender and 1–2 midfielders/forwards from Burkina Faso.

Hassane Bandé 🔵

Cyrille Bayala 🟣

Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 4
• Goals conceded = 1
• xGoTC = 1.3
• SoTf = 8

Equatorial Guinea have the fourth-lowest xGoTC and SoTf amongst QF-ists. They have struggled to score, whereas Senegal has the best defense in the tournament, keeping a cleansheet in each game and conceding four shots on target. This could be a low-scoring game, and I recommend getting at the most one player from any position from this team.

Coco is part of a solid Equatorial Guinea defense that has conceded just one goal so far, and he was one of the highest-scoring defenders last week with 10 points.

Jesus Owono 🔵

Basilio Ndong 🟣

The Gambia 🇬🇲

Important stats:

• Goals scored = 4
• Goals conceded = 1
• xGoTC = 2.1
• SoTf = 9

The Gambia has the fourth-lowest xGoTC and fifth-lowest SoTf among teams in the quarter-finals. Cameroon have 17 SoTf and 5.5 xGoTC which is the highest among QF-ists but they have scored nine goals. I don’t expect a CS for either team in this game. At the most, you could get one player from any position from the Gambia.

James Gomez 🔵

Omar Colley 🟣

You can find additional AFCON 2021 Fantasy resources here.