AFCON Fantasy: Differential Picks for Gameweek 4

After 24 teams battled it out in the group stage, we are now entering the next round. I will do a short preview of the knockout stage just like I did for the previous gameweek, sharing with you my AFCON Fantasy differential picks for matchday 4.

AFCON Preview Round of 16

Big tournaments are always full of surprises. One of the big favorites and reigning champions Algeria have been eliminated, and 1st-time participants Gambia & Comoros have survived the group stage. Of the 68 goals scored, 10 have been penalties (14.7%).

Fixtures

According to Opta’s algorithm, these five teams have a higher than 10% chance to win the AFCON:

• Nigeria – 17%
• Morocco – 15.7%
• Senegal – 15.7%
• Egypt – 10.2%
• Ivory Coast – 10.0%

Teams in the AFCON Round of 16

I’ve listed the teams in tiers and the number of players you should select based on:
1. Performance.
2. Stats.
3. Current situation (suspension, injury, illness).
4. Road to the final.

With eight transfers in each of the following rounds, you can choose to attack the match-ups in each round much better and go for differential picks or punts. After having a max of three players from each team until the Rd of 16, we can have four players maximum in QF, eight in SF, and 12 in the final.

Tier 1 (3 players)

Cameroon 🇨🇲

Next fixtures: Comoros and Guinea/Gambia (QF)

Nigeria 🇳🇬

Next fixtures: Tunisia and Burkina Faso/Gabon (QF)

Senegal 🇸🇳

Next fixtures: Cape Verde and Mali/Equatorial Guinea (QF)

Tier 2 (2-3 players)

Morocco 🇲🇦

Next fixtures: Malawi and Ivory Coast/Egypt (QF)

Mali 🇲🇱

Next fixtures: Equatorial Guinea and Senegal/Cape Verde (QF)

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮

Next fixtures: Egypt and Morocco/Malawi (QF)

Tier 3 (1-2 players)

Burkina Faso 🇧🇫
Egypt 🇪🇬
Guinea 🇬🇳
The Gambia 🇬🇲
Tunisia 🇹🇳
Gabon 🇬🇦

Tier 4 (0-1 player)

Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶
Cape Verde 🇨🇻
Malawi 🇲🇼
Comoros 🇰🇲

AFCON Fantasy Player Picks RO16

Tier 1 Picks

Moumi Ngamaleu

🇨🇲 Country: Cameroon

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €8.5M

🚀 Ownership: 3%

🔄 Total points: 16 (5.3 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 assist, 6 key passes, and 3 chances created

The right-winger plays an integral part in Cameroon’s attack with an assist and team-high 1.16 xA in open play. He is also second in the team for chances created with three. So far, he has six key passes, 14 duels won, and one shot on target to his name.

Taiwo Awoniyi

🇳🇬 Country: Nigeria

🎯 Position: Forward

💰 Price: €7.5M

🚀 Ownership: 4%

🔄 Total points: 10 (5 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 9 shots, 4 shots on target, and 3 chances created

Played twice & rested for the third match, making his team-high four SoT’s & 2.38 xG even more impressive. Awoniyi has been involved in 2.55 sequences that led to a shot or goal (total xG) and is third for Nigeria when it comes to xA with 0.42.

Saliou Ciss

🇸🇳 Country: Senegal

🎯 Position: Defender

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 1%

🔄 Total points: 16 (8 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 3 key passes, 1 chance created, 14 duels won, and 6 CBI

Senegal’s first-choice left-back Ciss has played twice so far after missing the first game because of covid. He has registered one chance created, three key passes and 0.21 xA (3rd in the team) in his two games and looks pretty good. Senegal have kept a cleansheet in each of their group stage games and faced only three shots on target with 0.8 xGoTC.

Tier 2 Picks

Selim Amallah

🇲🇦 Country: Morocco

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €7.1M

🚀 Ownership: 3%

🔄 Total points: 18 (6 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 key passes, and 2 chances created

Amallah is third in the team for shots with five (one SoT) and xG with 1.64 total xG. Facing a Malawi team that has conceded the most shots on target so far with 12, behind Comoros’ 17 and 3.7 xGoTC (2nd), he could be a great differential.

Massadio Haïdara

🇲🇱 Country: Mali

🎯 Position: Defender

💰 Price: €5.1M

🚀 Ownership: 3%

🔄 Total points: 20 (6.7 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 3 shots, 1 shot on target, and 10 CBI

Haïdara scored the only open goal for Mali so far in the last game, besides Koné’s three penalty goals. Despite being a defender, he is third for xG in open play for the team with 0.46 xG. Mali have kept two cleansheets and faced only five shots on target so far with 0.8 xGoTC and have another great fixture to keep a cleansheet against Equatorial Guinea.

Ibrahim Sangaré

🇨🇮 Country: Ivory Coast

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €5.1M

🚀 Ownership: 4%

🔄 Total points: 20 (6.7 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 1 assist, 7 key passes, 6 chances created, and 19 duels won

Sangaré is an energetic midfielder who plays all over the pitch for Ivory Coast and has been one of their most impressive players in AFCON 2021. He is fourth for xG in the team with 1.54 xG has the most chances created with six to go along with a goal and an assist to his name.

Tier 3 Picks

Bertrand Traoré

🇧🇫 Country: Burkina Faso

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €8M

🚀 Ownership: 6%

🔄 Total points: 10 (5 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 assist, 5 shots, 2 shots on target, 2 key passes, and 15 duels won

Mostafa Mohamed

🇪🇬 Country: Egypt

🎯 Position: Forward

💰 Price: €8.5M

🚀 Ownership: 5%

🔄 Total points: 7 (2.3 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 9 shots, 4 shots on target, and 0.43 xG

Issiaga Sylla

🇬🇳 Country: Guinea

🎯 Position: Defender

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 5%

🔄 Total points: 22 (7.3 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 2 cleansheets, 5 key passes, 0.62 xG, and 0.42 xA

Musa Barrow

🇬🇲 Country: The Gambia

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €7.6M

🚀 Ownership: 3%

🔄 Total points: 21 (7 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 2 assists, 11 shots, 4 shots on target, and 4 key passes

Jim Allevinah

🇬🇦 Country: Gabon

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €6.2M

🚀 Ownership: 6%

🔄 Total points: 22 (7.3 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 2 goals, 1 assist, 6 shots, 2 shots on target, and 0.81 total xG

Tier 4 Picks

Iván Salvador Edú

🇬🇶 Country: Equatorial Guinea

🎯 Position: Forward

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 1%

🔄 Total points: 16 (5.3 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 assist, 9 shots, 1 shot on target, 6 key passes, and 2.63 total xG

Garry Rodrigues

🇨🇻 Country: Cape Verde

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €6.5M

🚀 Ownership: 0%

🔄 Total points: 14 (4.7 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 1 goal, 1 assist, 5 shots, 2 shots on target, 0.79 xA and 2.12 total xG

Gabadinho Mhango

🇲🇼 Country: Malawi

🎯 Position: Forward

💰 Price: €6M

🚀 Ownership: 1%

🔄 Total points: 16 (8 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 2 goals, 8 shots, 2 shots on target, and 1.93 total xG

Ahmed Mogni

🇰🇲 Country: Comoros

🎯 Position: Midfielder

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 0%

🔄 Total points: 15 (5 PPG)

📊 Key stats: 2 goals, 4 shots, 2 shots on target, 0.89 xG, and 1.07 total xG

• Top priority: Mali; Senegal; Morocco
• Followed by: Cameroon; Burkina Faso

You can find additional AFCON 2021 Fantasy resources here.

Robbie