AFCON Fantasy: Differential Picks for Gameweek 3

Current world #1 in AFCON Fantasy Robbie shares his favourite differential picks for the last gameweek of the AFCON group stages.

AFCON Fantasy Matchday 3 Preview

As we enter the last gameweek of the group stage, I have mapped out the scenarios of each team that want to qualify for the knockout stage.

The following 12 countries will advance to the next round: Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Senegal, Morocco, Gabon, Nigeria, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, and Mali.

Nigeria have clinched the top spot in Group D because the current number two, Egypt, lost to them in the first game.

Zimbabwe and Mauritania have been eliminated from the tournament.

This is the rule concerning tiebreakers in the tournament:

Teams are ranked according to points (three points for a win, one point for a draw, zero points for a loss). If tied on points, the following tiebreaking criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings (Regulations Article 74):

1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams.
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams.
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams.
4. If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, if two teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are applied exclusively to these two teams.
5. Goal difference in all group matches.
6. Goals scored in all group matches.
7. Drawing of lots.

Based on the scenarios, eye test, and matchups, I have listed these teams as teams I want to prioritize to target for GW 3:

– Burkina Faso, facing Ethiopia, will want to win to secure 2nd place in group A.

– Senegal, facing Malawi, will want to win with a good goal difference for a chance to win group B.

– Guinea, in group B, against the already eliminated Zimbabwe, are in the same situation as Senegal.

– Ghana, facing Comoros, in survival mode in group C, must win with a good goal difference for a chance to become 2nd.

– Guinea-Bissau, facing Nigeria that have already clinched the top spot in Group D, have to win to have a chance to become 2nd.

– Mali, against the already eliminated Mauritania, must win with a good goal difference to win group F.

This doesn’t mean you must not target players from other teams, but I personally want to prioritize these teams as much as I can, and if you aren’t using your wildcard in GW3, it is wise to keep the players who have done well in the first two games. Don’t take too many hits to guess lineups which can be heavily rotated for some teams. Each team has a different strategy and approach entering GW3, depending on the thinking of their head coach.

This time, I will try to make some differential picks, which will be more difficult to predict than in GW1 and GW2, with players owned in less than 10% of teams, and I will give you an option for another player in that position. To make it more interesting, these picks won’t be the same ones that I’ve made for GW2.

FYI, I still think my recommendations for GW2 can have a good GW3:  Okoye, A. Diallo, Khazri, and I. Koné – AFCON Fantasy: Differential Picks for Gameweek 2.

Goalkeeper Picks

Aly Kéita

🐘 Country: Guinea

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 1%

🔄 Total points: 15 (7.5 ppg)

The 35-year-old Swedish-born goalkeeper has played all his career in Sweden. He opted to represent his father’s country of origin, Guinea, and made his debut in 2018, where he has played 18 times in goal.

Guinea will face the already eliminated Zimbabwe in GW3. Two cleansheets in the first two games also show that Guinea’s defense is pretty solid, while Keita also faced eight shots on target (SoT) and 2.49 expected goals conceded on target (xGoTC).

Joseph Wollacott

⭐ Country: Ghana

💰 Price: €5M

🚀 Ownership: 0%

🔄 Total points: 5 (2.5 ppg)

Wollacott currently plays for EFL League Two side Swindon Town. He made his debut for Ghana in October last year, and since that debut has played all games for Ghana (six caps). The Black Stars will go up against a Comoros team that hasn’t scored a goal in this tournament so far, with M’Changama, the player who has the highest xG of 0.32 in two games. Wollacott has conceded two goals on five shots on target faced and 1.69 xGoTC this tournament.

Honorable mentions:

• Mohamed Nbalie Kamara – Sierra Leone – €4.5M – 1% – 17 points (8.5 ppg)
• Bechir Ben Saïd – Tunisia – €4.5M – 1% – 8 points (4 ppg)
• Jesús Owono – Equatorial Guinea – €4.5M – 0% – 7 points (7 ppg)

AFCON Fantasy Defender Picks

Cheikhou Kouyaté

🦁 Country: Senegal

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 7%

🔄 Total points: 14 (7 ppg)

The 32-year-old Crystal Palace player can play as a central midfielder or centre-back. He is listed as a defender on Realfevr but has played as a midfielder in the first two games of the tournament, with the advantage of higher probability to send key passes (one so far) while battling in the midfield for duels won (11 so far with eight in the last game) and CBI (Clearance, Block and Interception – total seven so far).

Kouyaté is very active in the duels (team-high three tackles and four interceptions, third in team for ball recoveries with 10) and is involved in the buildup to the attack for Senegal (fourth in the team for passes with 75, with one chance created). While the Senegal goalkeeper has only faced three shots on target with 0.8 xGoTC.

Senegal, needing a win with a good goal difference for a chance to win group B, are facing Malawi in the last game. Malawi blanked in the first game against Guinea and scored twice against Zimbabwe.

Another option from Senegal: Ibrahima Mbaye (€5.0M, 0%, 13 points – 6.5 ppg)

Hamari Traoré

🦅 Country: Mali

💰 Price: €5.5M

🚀 Ownership: 3%

🔄 Total points: 9 points (4.5 ppg)

Traoré plays in Ligue 1 club Rennes, where he is the captain, as he also is for the Mali national team. The right-back is part of a very solid Malian defense that held a CS last year during the World Cup qualifications.

Mali have so far conceded only one goal and that was from the penalty spot against Gambia. In those two games, Traoré accumulated three KP’s, four DW’s, and nine CBI’s, and was very involved in building the attack for Mali. Traoré already has two CC, leading the team with 0.37 xA and second in passes with 81. Mali keeper Mounkoro has only faced two shots on target with 0.4 xGoTC. Traoré has also been involved in eight sequences that ended with a shot, a team-high.

Mali will play against the already eliminated Mauritania and must win with a good goal difference to win group F.

Another option from Mali: Massadio Haïdara (€5.0M, 1%, 8 points – 4.0 ppg)

Honorable mentions:

• Nayef Aguerd – Morocco – €5.5M – 3% – 14 points (7 ppg)
• Issiaga Sylla – Guinea – €5.5M – 3% – 20 points (10 ppg)
• Ibrahima Sory Conté – Guinea – €5.0M – 0% – 13 points (6.5 ppg)

 AFCON Fantasy Midfielder Picks

Bertrand Traoré

🐎 Country: Burkina Faso

💰 Price: €8M

🚀 Ownership: 5%

🔄 Total points: 6 points (6 ppg)

The Burkina Faso captain missed the second game because he tested positive for Covid-19 but is now back and ready to play in the third match. The Chelsea academy product was loaned out twice to Dutch clubs Vitesse and Ajax and, after a successful stint in Ligue 1 with Lyon, is now playing for Aston Villa.

He was very active in the first match against host Cameroon, with one assist (one KP), two SoT’s, two CBI’s, and won six duels. In my opinion, he is the big boss of the team and will take penalties too.

Burkina Faso will face Ethiopia in the last match and will want to win to secure second place in group A.

Another option from Burkina Faso: Abdoul-Fessal Tapsoba playing OOP as a striker (€5.5M, 2%, 5 points – 2.5 ppg); Gustavo Sangare (€5.1M, 8%, 16 points – 8 ppg)

Selim Amallah

🦁 Country: Morocco

💰 Price: €7M

🚀 Ownership: 1%

🔄 Total points: 15 points (7.5 ppg)

Amallah currently plays for Standard Liège in the Belgian First Division A. He made his debut for Morocco in 2019 and has 14 caps with four goals for the national team. He played a big part in his team’s 2-0 win from Comoros last week with a goal and an assist. He has the most passes amongst the Moroccan midfielders and forwards with 73, and nine times he was involved in sequences that ended in a shot, with two ending up in the back of the net.

Morocco will face Gabon in the last match of the group stage. With Morocco only needing a draw, there is a slight chance of rotation.

Honorable mentions:

• Musa Barrow – Gambia – €7.5M – 1% – 13 points (6.5ppg)
• Amadou Diawara – Guinea – €5.5M – 0% – 6 points (3 ppg)
• Guélor Kanga – Gabon – €5.5M – 0% – 13 points (6.5 ppg)

AFCON Fantasy Forward Picks

Mohamed Bayo

🐘 Country: Guinea

💰 Price: €7.5M

🚀 Ownership: 2%

🔄 Total points: 6 points ( 3ppg)

The French-born 23-year-old has been connected to West Ham, Brighton, and Southampton these past few months. Playing for Clermont Foot 63, Bayo has taken Ligue 1 by storm with nine goals and two assists in 17 games. He made his debut with the national team in March 2021 and has played nine times for Guinea, scoring three times.

Bayo has been unlucky in the first two games of the tournament, facing tough defense of Malawi and Senegal. Which could also mean for him and the whole Guinea team, that they’re due. Bayo is still to get a shot on target (two shots) but looked more lively against Senegal than in the match against Malawi, with one KP and nine DW’s. He was involved in the sequence that led to Guinea’s only goal in the tournament and could be a good differential in AFCON Fantasy.

• Gabadinho Mango – Malawi – €6.0M – 0% – 14 points (14 ppg) – the two-goal hero against Zimbabwe
• Buya Turay – Sierra Leone – €5.5M – 0% – 9 points (4.5 ppg) – leads the team with six shots, three SoT’s and his xG of 0.5 is the second-highest in the team
• Musa Tombo – Sierra Leone – €4.5M – 3% – 6 points (6 ppg)
• Taiwo Awoniyi – Nigeria – €7.5M – 3% – 10 points (5 ppg) – can be rested, but Nigeria don’t have many options up front.

• Famara Diédhiou – Senegal – €8.0M – 1% – 0 points. He hasn’t played a single minute yet because of Covid.

Summary

You can find additional AFCON 2021 Fantasy resources here.

Robbie