Who led the Premier League in stats such as xG, xA, shots, big chances created and more for GW1? FPL Mayor takes a look at the Opta stats.

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nxpG

1.3 – Maupay
1.2 – Jackson
1.1 – De Cordova-Reid
1.0 – Isak
0.9 – Edouard, Wilson
0.8 – Groß, Diaz
0.7 – Haaland, Tonali
0.6 – Cunha, Disasi, Eze, Solanke, Cash, Soucek, Awoniyi
0.5 – Foden, Ferguson, Welbeck, Varane, Rodri, Doucoure, Mbeumo, Mpanzu, Watkins, Romero, Pedro

 

xA

1.4 – Estupiñán
1.0 – Onana
0.9 – Doucoure
0.8 – Maddison, Barnes
0.7 – James, Mitoma, Gordon
0.6 – Chilwell, Elanga, Eze, Bowen, Groß, Wan-Bissaka
0.5 – Neto, Henry, Colwill, Ayew, Diaby, Kovačić.

 

Shots

8 – Eze
7 – Edouard
6 – Bowen
5 – Cunha
4 – Brooks, Welbeck, Jackson, Pedro, Douglas Luiz, Iwobi, Maupay, Diaz, Morris, Rodri, Haaland, Garnacho, Rashford, Wilson, Hwang.

 

Shots on Target

4 – Wilson
3 – Rodri, Maupay, Rice, Edouard, Isak
2 – Saka, Brooks, Solanke, Mbeumo, Wissa, Estupiñán, Pedro, March, Andersen, Jackson, Iwobi, Keane, Morris, Haaland, Tonali, Diaby, Neto, Fábio Silva.

 

Shots in the Box

7 – Edouard
5 – Eze
4 – Pedro, Jackson, Maupay, Diaz, Morris, Haaland, Bowen, Rashford
3 – Solanke, Nketiah, Mbeumo, Welbeck, Wissa, Álvarez, Rodri, Antony, Isak, Wilson, De Cordova-Reid, Hwang, Neto, Cunha, Diaby, Fábio Silva, Paquetá.

 

Big Chances Created

2 – James, Onana, Gordon, Barnes, Estupiñán
1 – 29 players

 

Touches in the Opposition Box

12 – Solanke, Rashford
10 – Mitoma, Edouard, Pedro
8 – Groß, Eze, Morris, Isak, Hwang, Dawson
7 – Saka, Nketiah, Welbeck, Richarlison, Jackson, Son, Bowen, Fornals, Neto

 

If you liked this article, make sure to follow @FPLMayor on Twitter for more.

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You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 23/24 season here.

Diaby vs. Watkins is a common question for FPL managers but who is actually better? Bakchod FPL share their thoughts through an analytical lens.

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With Diaby coming in, will that reduce the output of Watkins? Based on the data, it actually seems to be the opposite. Watkins becomes a better pick. Here’s why:

Watkins definitely had a Talismanic role last season at Aston Villa. While Ings looked like the focal point earlier, it was definitely Watkins in the second half.

Watkins in the last three seasons – Share of team shots – Share of team xG:

• 22-23 – 20% – 33%
• 21-22 – 16% – 26%
• 20-21 – 18% – 28%

Now let’s look at these same numbers for Diaby:

Diaby in the last three years – Share of team shots – Share of team xG:

• 22-23 – 18% – 21%
• 21-22 – 12% – 13%
• 20-21 – 11% – 10%

While he did play a supporting role to Patrik Schick in 21-22, he stepped up in 22-23. Okay, based on this it looks like there will now be two Talismans up top for Aston Villa. And Watkins’ output should decrease. So why do we think it won’t?

Well, we looked at the different formations used by Villa under Emery.

Under Emery, there were two formations that were commonly used:
1. 4-2-3-1 with Watkins as the number 9
2. 4-2-2 with Watkins and Buendia or Bailey playing the second forward (which will now be taken up by Diaby)

Surprisingly Watkins’ share of xG in 4-4-2 was 52% despite the second striker, much higher than the 33% which was the number for the complete season. Meanwhile, in 4-2-3-1, his share of xG was 34%, closer to the overall season number. Similarly, in 4-4-2, he accounted for 28% of the shots, while in 4-2-3-1 he took 22% of the shots taken by the team. One major reason is that Emery likes to create artificial spaces and Watkins has a good eye for exploiting them. This could be even better with a player like Diaby coming in.

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Secondly, Villa also either baits a press from the opposition defenders and then:

• Move the ball via quick passes in the midfield with players like Buendia, McGinn, Luiz and now Tielemanns
• Or they move the ball over the last line, with Watkins as the target

And getting a second player opens up another option for the midfielders, which in turn leads to better chances for Villa. This could be seen in the friendlies as well. All three goals vs Newcastle comprised a lot of intricate passes that were created right from the back. The same could be seen again in the goal vs Lazio. Alternately, Diaby’s goal vs Fulham was played by Luiz over the opposition’s defence.
Lastly, we also looked at the formations played by Villa in the pre-season friendlies. Interestingly, they used the same 4-2-3-1 in the games against Walsall, Newcastle and Fulham. Meanwhile, once Diaby came in, they shifted to a 3-1-4-2 vs Brentford and Lazio. This looked like a more attacking version of the 4-4-2, the formation in which Watkins performed better.

To conclude, Watkins is still a good pick and could actually be even better with Diaby coming in. Other transfers like Tielemanns and Pau Torres will only strengthen Emery’s Villa further. On a personal level, I am really excited to see how Aston Villa play this season. Definitely one of the teams on my watchlist.

Thank you for reading. All feedback is welcome. Please like/share if this was helpful. Do follow us @BakchodFPL for similar threads and analysis.

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You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 23/24 season here.

J.League Fantasy creator Kurasawa on suggestions to improve Fantasy Premier League by FPL General and his fantasy philosophy.

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Hello to all of you and especially to FPL General!

I have just read your article on how to improve FPL and have decided to share my thoughts as I have a lot to say about it.

But first, let me introduce myself. I go by the nickname Kurasawa and I run my own fantasy games with unique rules thanks to a platform Foontasy and writing detailed previews such as this. Currently, I do only J.League Fantasy (open this introduction article in the new tab to read it later). I stopped playing FPL one year and a half ago because I got tired of elements of randomness in traditional fantasy games.

How is J.League Fantasy different from FPL? Look at the picture below:

As you can see, your mental health is threatened less.

With the introduction over, let me start commenting on the suggestions, in order of least to most disagreement.

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On Re-Adjusting the Gameweek Deadlines

I think the best route to take is to make the deadline coincide with the first kick-off.

There’ll never be a perfect solution

I think I have one. Since not everyone wants to check line-ups an hour before the deadline (especially those in Western Hemisphere), FPL should consider launching two different modes of the game. The first one with the deadline at kick-off with such chips available as post-deadline transfer. And the second one with a deadline of 2-3 hours before kick-off for those who just want to make transfers and don’t follow the games live. You’re welcome.

 

On Higher Prices

Top of my list of requests would be higher player prices. Make it much harder for us to fill our squads with picks from the top teams.

I think doing just that won’t help much. The problem is deeper. Prices don’t change fast enough. Miguel Almirón and Kaoru Mitoma have 15+ goals and assists each and their price didn’t even rise over 6.0. If FPL had a Foontasy price change system, they would be priced 8.0-9.0 (Haaland, for comparison, would be 16.5, and you would think twice about owning him).

How does that price change system work? To express it shortly, prices change based on player performances rather than managers making transfers (glad I don’t check potential price changes every evening anymore). The player price can change by 1.0 in four GWs.

You may wonder: with price changes so fast, aren’t budgets also becoming bigger making it easier to pick top players? Yes, they are. To stop this, every six gameweeks, I do dekulakization called ‘budget reset’, where a manager can make changes only if his new squad fits the budget equal to the initial one at the start of the game. Not a delicate solution, I know, but for me it’s when it gets interesting.

By the way, switching from a transfer-based to a performance-based price change system could allow such features as cancelling your transfers.

 

On FPL Chips

I don’t like them. Why? Because you know when you are going to use them: double gameweeks. I don’t like them too. Why? Because your range of choice is significantly narrowed, making you pick a player with 2 matches. On Foontasy, rather than summarizing points from two games, only one with the highest score is counted. But I digress from the main topic. For me, the ideal chip is the one where you don’t know when you will use it. This criteria is met by two Foontasy chips: post-deadline transfers and free-hit transfers (where you can loan in a player for just one gameweek). You could use them on average every three GWs.

To add another argument, FPL-esque chips are as much guesswork as picking a captain and bench.

 

On Making Captaincy Exciting

Captaincy delenda est (must be destroyed). I hate this part of the game the most. In some cases it makes you root against your own player just because you didn’t captain him. Also, if the optimal strategy is picking the obvious choice, then there’s no point in it. If you want to pick a differential captain, most likely you will fail, and those managers who didn’t fail are viewed as luckers in your eyes. I don’t like choosing between a 50% chance of return and 40%, that’s also why there’s no ‘pick the bench’ option on Foontasy.

Also, captaincy could mess up a game even with Foontasy price change system. If you can clone any player, why not clone the highest-priced one?

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Other Things That Grind My Gears

Bonus points system and detailed scoring: A long time ago when Stat Revolution started, I wanted players to be awarded for such things as key passes, last-man tackles and clearance off the line. But when some games started to do it, I realised that it makes Fantasy even more difficult and even more random. Choosing between the one who simply contributes some goals and the other who makes a lot of event actions for me is an unnecessary headache. Also, this kind of scoring makes it harder to find a good differential, because the underlying stats are already translated to points. So I’m rooting for BPS delenda est too. I don’t like detailed scoring so many midfielders are not given one point for a cleansheet on Foontasy. Those who already play there may wonder: “But didn’t you start giving one point for defenders for every six clearances?“. OK, OK, you got me here. I did that to get managers to pick centre-backs more often than full-backs.

One free transfer between gameweeks: You make your only FT, it goes wrong, and you have to use another FT to sell him, but you also want to sell other players. Your unlucky choices delay your wished transfers or sacrifice points for them. You are literally getting penalised. To reduce this element of luck, I recommend giving 2 FT, but no more. If you give 3, managers will make more short-term picks therefore game becomes more random.

 

Well, that’s all! If you folks don’t want to take a break from fantasy, why not hop into J.League Fantasy?

— But didn’t it start 15 GWs ago?

Not a problem! You can compare yourself with others by average points per gameweek!

Go to that introduction tab you’ve opened earlier (if you haven’t, I give you one more chance). Create your team before the deadline on Saturday 3rd June 6:00 AM BST, the kick-off of the first match between 1st-placed Vissel Kobe and vice-champions Kawasaki Frontale.

Also, by following the game’s Twitter account, playing will be funnier and easier.

The end.

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You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 22/23 season here.

Need some differentials to boost your rank? Tipster Bornob shares the best differentials to consider in gameweek 32 of FPL.

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I know that many FPL managers are now thinking like me, to use their free hit chip on gameweek 34 rather than going for it now. But for those who are going to use it in 32, here are my differential picks below:

 

Andrew Robertson

🔴 Club: Liverpool

💰 Price: £6.8M

🚀 Ownership: 6.5%

• Up against Forest, who are ranked 19th for xG since the restart.

• Ranked 3rd among defenders for xGI (last 6 matches).

• Very high competition in attack – Nunez, Jota, Gakpo, Diaz, and Firmino fighting for two spots – Robertson’s place is more secure.

 

James Maddison

🦊 Club: Leicester City

💰 Price: £8.1M

🚀 Ownership: 8.3%

• Generated 0.72 xGI in a tough fixture away to City – along with one big chance missed.

• Playing very advanced in the support striker role, just behind Vardy.

• Wolves ranked 14th for xGC since the restart.

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Jarrod Bowen

⚒️ Club: West Ham United

💰 Price: £8.0M

🚀 Ownership: 3.7%

• Do not be deceived by Bournemouth’s good form – they are ranked 20th for xGC since the restart.

• BOU have conceded the most chances down Bowen’s flank this season.

• Minutes more secure than Benrahma, and often plays 90 minutes.

• On set piece duties.

 

Andreas Pereira

⚫️ Club: Fulham FC

💰 Price: £4.3M

🚀 Ownership: 14.2%

• Up against Leeds who rank 18th for xGC since the restart.

• More goal-hungry in Mitrovic’s absence – 14 shots in the last three games.

• An impressive 0.49 xGI in the last six games.

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Gabriel Jesus

🟥 Club: Arsenal

💰 Price: £8.1M

🚀 Ownership: 30.5%

• Four goals in the last three starts.

• Averaging a ridiculous 1.22 xGI per start since returning from injury.

• Arsenal will look to bounce back after dropping points in two consecutive games – triple Arsenal attack provides a unique option on FH with very high upside.

 

Eberechi Eze and Micheal Olise

🦅 Club: Crystal Palace FC

💰 Price: £5.5M each

🚀 Ownership: 6.7% and 3.6%

Since Roy Hodgson has joined Palace, Eze, and Olise have had more points than their previous last 10 GW. Eze played 90 minutes in all three Premier League matches under him. His xG rate has risen up high which is 0.38 and 0.64 and 0.21 from 0.0 of previous GWs. xGI is 0.73 and 0.23, and the creative rate is 42.8 and 34.6 while the threat rate is 41.0 and 23.0 against Leeds and Leicester city in the previous GWs.

Olise is in a more devastating form while partnering with Eze. He has been the team’s most creative winger on the pitch and has xG of 0.05, 0.010, and 0.20 against Southampton, Leeds, and Leicester City. While if you look at his xGA, it is 0.13, 0.90, and 0.17. Though he looks inconsistent he has the class and responsibility to take the game away from opponents through his creativity which is 13.3, 83.5, and 46.8 in his last three GW.

Both Olise Eze only have to play Spurs in the future which is a big threat but they will face West Ham, Wolves, and Nottingham Forrest too. So taking up both rather than Arsenal’s midfield is an excellent option for me. Olise is also on set-piece duties.

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Alex Moreno

🟣 Club: Aston Villa

💰 Price: £4.5M

🚀 Ownership: 2.7%

Five cleansheets in the last seven games for Villa. Moreno is playing more minutes now and has more responsibility on his shoulder as Cash is still out so he is the best differential pick from Villa’s defence if you want one. Since Villa played Arsenal At home, Villa has conceded only two goals, which shows how their defence is providing them. Moreno had 0.71 xA and 0.71 xGI against Newcastle at home.

 

Emi Martinez

🟣 Club: Aston Villa

💰 Price: £5M

🚀 Ownership: 7.2%

All though everybody is picking Raya, Steele, or Alisson, here’s a great differential pick in my opinion. If you look at his number of points since the disaster performance at home against Arsenal, it goes like this:

• 9 vs Eve.
• 7 vs CRY.
• 3 vs WHU.
• 11 vs CHE.
• 3 vs LEI.
• 9 vs NFO.
• 6 vs NEW.

In the last seven games, he has made 25 saves. All though he has to play Spurs Liverpool and United in the future you can rely on Dibbu. But he would be a backup for your team rather than the first choice.

 

Thanks for reading this article on FPL. I would appreciate your valuable comment and shares.

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You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 22/23 season here.

Which are the best picks for gameweek 32 in FPL? Which captain options should you consider? FPL Mayor takes a look in his free hit guide. 

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Goalkeepers

Arsenal and Liverpool have by far the highest cleansheet odds this gameweek. Naturally, this makes Ramsdale and Alisson good picks at home to Southampton and Forest respectively.

See more

GW32 clean sheet % 🧤🥅

ARS: 58%
LIV: 54%
CPL: 44%
NEW: 38%
LEI: 33%
WHU: 33%
BRE: 31%
FUL: 30%
AVL: 29%
BOU: 29%
WOL: 29%
EVE: 28%
LEE: 27%
TOT: 21%
NOT: 8%
SOU: 8%
BHA: 🚫
CHE: 🚫
MCI: 🚫
MUN: 🚫

— Abdul Rehman (@FPL_Salah) April 18, 2023

The main issue is we’ll likely want three outfield players from both of these teams.

Palace are third for clean sheet odds this week which makes Johnstone at home to Everton a great pick at 4.4m (Guaita is currently injured). If you’re looking for a slightly different option, Nick Pope is also a great pick. Despite not keeping many clean sheets recently, Newcastle are still one of the best defences in the league.

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Defenders

The pool of defenders to choose from isn’t the best for GW32. The obvious top pick is Trent. Don’t overthink it, just put him in your team. As mentioned earlier, Liverpool and Arsenal are the favourites for a clean sheet this week. This makes Gabriel, Robertson, VVD, and White all good picks.

The problem is that we’re going to want midfielders and forwards from these teams so won’t be able to fit many defenders in. Therefore we’ll have to look to other teams like Newcastle and Palace. Trippier is the obvious next-best pick after Arsenal and Liverpool defenders due to his assist threat and a home fixture against Spurs. A cheaper alternative from Newcastle is Fabian Schär. He’s had 26 shots since the World Cup, making him one of the most dangerous CBs in terms of goal threat.

As mentioned earlier, Palace have the third highest chance of a clean sheet this week. They have some great cheap options like Andersen, Mitchell, Guéhi, and Ward if you’re struggling for defenders.

Midfielders

Salah and Saka are the easiest spots to fill on free hit this week. They’re the best midfield options and should both be in everyone’s teams. The third midfield spot is likely to be used on either Ødegaard or Martinelli or Bowen. Choosing between them comes down to how you evaluate Martinelli’s expected minutes for the game and Bowen’s threat in attack.

The only midfield option from Liverpool other than Salah is Gakpo. Once again it comes down to expected minutes. If he was guaranteed to start and play most of the game then he’d be an easy pick. However, Klopp now has five players for two positions alongside Salah in the front three. For me, this makes Gakpo too much of a minutes risk so I doubt I’ll be picking him.

The standout pick from the rest of the teams is James Maddison. Admittedly Leicester have been terrible of late but if there was ever a fixture to turn it around, it’s Wolves at home. His minutes don’t appear to be in question and even against City he managed to find himself on the end of a couple of chances. Some other cheaper options that I like are Eze, Olise, and Andreas. For what it’s worth if I was picking one of Eze and Olise I’d go for Eze.

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Forwards

The forward spots are the trickiest as there are plenty of good options. I think it comes down to picking three of the six below:

• Solanke v WHU (H)
• Jesus v SOU (H)
• Watkins v BRE (A)
• Toney v AVL (H)
• Kane v NEW (A)
• Isak v TOT (H)

One name not mentioned is Darwin. If he was getting regular starts over the last few weeks then he would absolutely be an option but the risk of him being benched is too high for me to consider him. For me, Isak is also too much of a minutes risk to pick him. We saw a couple of games ago that Howe is happy to rotate his two strikers and with so many other good options, I don’t think he’s worth the gamble.

Once again, if you think Jesus starts the game and is likely to play most of the match then he’s probably the best option. The tough decision comes when only picking three Arsenal players. Solanke, Toney, and Watkins are all nailed starters that are on penalties. Solanke probably has the best fixture with West Ham at home. However, Brentford and Villa are better attacking teams and create more chances.

All three are great options. Finally, Harry Kane is clearly the best forward on the list but he has the worst fixture. As mentioned earlier, Newcastle are still one of the best defences in the league, making it a tough away fixture for Kane.

 

Captaincy

For me, it’s easy this week. Salah is the best captain option. The only other player that I would consider is Saka but I can’t see myself going for him over Salah.

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FPL Gameweek 32 Draft

This is my current free hit draft. Players that I am considering:

• Jesus
• Martinelli
• Playing Trippier

 

Full credit to Brad who wrote this on Twitter as a thread and agreed to let me post it here on Fantasy Tipsters. You can Follow Brad on Twitter @FPLMayor. You can follow us on Twitter at @TipstersFantasy also you can follow me on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram @munna_rambo. We are waiting for your valuable reaction and comments. Thank you.

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You can find Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resources for the 22/23 season here.